TPTK, Nut Flush draw hand question

[Black Aces 518]

Playing the Stars $3R satellite to the 500K. It's just after the rebuy period. Villain hasn't been at the table that long, but was fairly wild and aggro during the rebuy period (which is not unusual or surprising, obv.) Hasn't gotten out of line (at least and had to show) since the break. Blinds are 100-200. Hero has 9900, villain has 21K.

Hero is folded to in MP3 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to 600. Villain minreraises from SB to 1000. I hate the minreraise, esp out of position, but I can't fold here, right? I tell myself to be cautious on the flop and I call.

Flop is QJ7, all clubs. Villain leads 1000. Hero?

Unless your up against AA your even money to improve to two pair or better. You could check raise big here. I think you have to take at least one card off getting 3 to 1. I think you have enough outs to make a big raise on the flop though.

[Black Aces 518]

bowski44-yeah I should clarify, I'm definitely not considering folding. My choices are call, raise to 3K or so, or push. My conundrum was if I call I am now much weaker on a blank turn (or a J or K), and if I raise, I am cutting off any money from hands like AK or TT (unless they have clubs), and getting called by QQ, JJ, KK, AA, etc.

[illegit]

Raise to 3000 or so and call a push. If you just call and a blank comes on the turn and now he pushes or makes a large bet, will you call? If you would call then I'd much prefer to get the money in where I figure to have considerable equity against his range, that being on the flop, rather than play a tougher guessing game on the turn.

Also you a raise won't necessarilly lose all hands worse than yours (specifically those that contain the Kc).

You can't fold preflop to that small reraise preflop. Villain Range: AA-TT, AK-AQ. His bet postflop is bad if he has AA, since he has no club and will be giving good odds to draw against him. For the same reason, I don't think he has a made set either. Judging from his flop bet, I think he's holding a hand with the Kc right now, where he doesn't mind so much if a club comes. I think he has AxKc, KcKx, or TT. He might have a set, but I think his flop bet would be wrong given the draws out.

AxKc is drawing to 6 outs and TT is drawing to 2 outs or 1 out. I want to keep all his possible holding in the hand and I have position, so I think I will just call the bet and see what the turn brings to keep the volatility level down. I really don't want to raise on the flop and have him push with KcKx and I have to race for all my chips (same thing if he holds QQ or JJ). I think villains most likely holdings are KxKc and AxKc.

[Black Aces 518]

so mikeuh, if you call and the turn is a red 5, and villain bets 1K again, I assume you are calling again, or does this bet change the range you put villain on?

I thought too that his most likely holdings were KK or AK with the Kc.

If he bets 1k on the turn, I don't think he has KK or a set. He either has AxKc or is playing TT very bad. I would raise to 4k if he bets 1k because 1) I don't want him betting into me so weakly in the future; I want to train him to make a commitment bet here or check (Don't you just hate it when you have JJ and you raise a PF limper, an ace flops, and he bets min on flop and turn?), 2) I won't make anymore money from AxKc unless one of the 8 clubs come out, and 3) I'd be convinced I am ahead. He may very well call with AxKc. If he bets around 2k, I'll call. If he bets 3/4 pot or more, I'll have a tough decision, but I think I'd be leaning towards folding (barely). I know it hurts. But drawing against KK with one card to come would be even more painful. BTW, can you post the results?

[Black Aces 518]

I will post the results, but I want to make clear that this hand troubled me all during it and not just at its completion, and this is not results-oriented, or a bad beat post.

Hero calls turn. River is J, of obviously not clubs. Villain bets 1K again. Hero calls. Villain shows J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Doh. It did give me a substantial read on villain, which I later used for profit, though, so that was good.

by going all in (check raise variety) it makes him think you have a naked flush imo. Your trying to buy the pot from him and i think u can get action from weaker hands. However, that may be contradictory because a mini reraise imo always seems like AA or KK. If your opp. is more willing to gamble then the check raise all in seems better cuz there are more worse hands that will call you plus u'll have the backdoor flush draw tot he nuts. If its a standard reraise (TT-AA,AK) then what hands can call that you are ahead of?? JJ or TT w/ a club maybe, AA and KK definitely, AKc maybe so then maybe check raising all in is not the best play. Like u said though, too much hand to fold. I like taking the lead in the hand and raise it up a decent amount and call a push on the flop or lead the turn if its checked to you even if the fourth club comes cuz he could have the Kc and your almost sure to double up then.

[Black Aces 518]

bowski-

I can't checkraise as I'm in position. Villain led the flop for about 1/2 pot. I agree that pushing may look like a naked flush, and I think that I can get worse hands to possibly call, notably AKc. But the minraise narrowed down his range in my head, and I really didn't want to take a true 50/50 here with my stack size and being covered. The primary thing I relied on in ultimately calling was the thought that if I'm behind, I have a good shot at catching, and if he's behind, he does not have a good shot at catching. I did not want to take the betting impetus away.

On a club turn, I would certainly bet if checked to, expecting a c/r from the Kc.