200 NL

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]


You aren't missing anything. I think (and most posters too I believe) the correct line is to fold the flop without a better read.



[/ QUOTE ]

When I first played full ring, and a guy like this was betting into me, I would drop AK without too much thought.

But that was mostly due to the fact that I was less likely to make the correct read/decision on later streets.

My Aks played very profitably taking this approach.

[MTBlue]

lol, this guy has setminer stats. He's not calling raises with KJo or KQo. I rarely fold this against a normal player but against a rock this a clear fold. I like to play big pots with weak players not multitabling nits. If you can put villain on a hand that hero can beat that villain would limp call a raise with OP let me know.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


You aren't missing anything. I think (and most posters too I believe) the correct line is to fold the flop without a better read.



[/ QUOTE ]

When I first played full ring, and a guy like this was betting into me, I would drop AK without too much thought.

But that was mostly due to the fact that I was less likely to make the correct read/decision on later streets.

My Aks played very profitably taking this approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best post on the importance of reads that we have had in a while. I don't think any of us disagree about the fundamentals here. We disagree based upon our read of villain's actions and his probable holdings.

Now let's get the result so somebody can say I told you so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Now let's get the result so somebody can say I told you so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

didn't OP say he folded the turn? i guess the world will never know [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Moozh]

I'm suprized to see that no one else has tried to put this guy on a specific hand range. With an opponent who has only a 15% VPIP, I would think we could narrow it down a lot here.z

Let's start with the hands that beat you. AA, AK, TT, 44, KT, K4, T4. For a guy only playing 15% of his hands I think we can rule out K4 and T4. KTo is very unlikely for a 15%er, but it would be nice to know the villian's position at the table. 44 is very possible, but wouldn't AA, AK, and TT fit into the top 5% of PFR hands? To me it looks like KTs, 44, or maybe a slowplayed AA, AK, or TT.

What are we ahead of? A whole lot, but what hands would he play that way? KQ? QJ? QQ, JJ? Maybe an adventurous smaller pair.

So, how does that affect our decision. I see 3 combos of 44 and 2 combos of KTs. Discount the aces and tens because of the limp preflop and we can say 3ish combos of AA and 2 combos of TT. That's about 10 cominations of hands we're behind.

There are 6 combos of AK to tie.

What about hands were ahead of? 8 combos of KQ, but would he limp in with KQo and then play it like that? Maybe cut it down to 4. Then there's QJ. He could be semi-bluffing. Lets limit it to the 4 combos of QJs. QQ and JJ are 6 combos each, but let's only give him credit for 2 or each since it would be strange to play them that way. That gives us up to 12 combinations that we beat.

Now those numbers are all assumed. If someone thinks some hands are more likely than others, just change the numbers to match the probabilities.

With the numbers I have, let's see what happens if you call. If you're behind, you're drawing to at best 3 outs, so we'll just simplify and say 0 outs. If he has AK, we'll say you split 100% of the time. If you're ahead, you'll win 100% of the time except against QJ which you beat 67% of the time.

So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

Now perhaps those numbers are a bit optimistic, but I think you're in better shape than you might think. Also, one more thing to think about was your flat call on the flop. Would you think that would make it more or less likely for him to bet a worse hand on the turn?

EDIT: Whoops, I just realized that we're on the turn and that you have an ace, so you'll beat QJ closer to 85% of the time here. Not a huge difference in the numbers, but maybe enough to bump it up to +50ish.

[ QUOTE ]
So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here, but calculating it this way you would be returned $47.28 after paying $160. That's actually a net loss of -112.72 right?

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here, but calculating it this way you would be returned $47.28 after paying $160. That's actually a net loss of -112.72 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I took that into account. I totalled up all the 'returned' numbers, subtracted (28*160) from that number, and then divided by 28 to get the +45.