Facing large raise w/a Set...200NL

guaranteedBluff · #1 11-30-2005, 03:12 AM

Villian is pretty tight, 15/5. Haven't seen him make a huge overbet move like this one before...

SB i'm not too worried about, he's been donking away chips all nite.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($166.15)
UTG+1 ($630.67)
UTG+2 ($297.80)
MP1 ($391.20)
MP2 ($203)
MP3 ($210.10)
CO ($682.32)
Hero ($252.95)
SB ($121.05)
BB ($273.51)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $8.

Turn: ($36) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $27, SB calls $27, MP2 raises to $154

xorbie · #2 11-30-2005, 03:19 AM

Raise PF. I think the turn is likely a fold.

pokerjoker · #3 11-30-2005, 03:20 AM

hmmmm...w/o PT I would say QT,JT,KQ. With PT I say KQ. CRY+FOLD. Do you have a lot of stats on him. If not then I still probably fold but I think longer.

guaranteedBluff · #4 11-30-2005, 03:22 AM

Only about 50 hands... no real solid reads.

4_2_it · #5 11-30-2005, 10:18 AM

Well MP2 either has JT, JJ or KQ. I don't know if KQ is a raisable MP 10-handed, but I think JJ would be. It is hard to put villain on a hand. His flop call with over cards and gut shot or TPGK is fine.

As much as it looks like you are beat, I would probably still call because I cannot lay down a set when a gut shot draw hits.

xorbie is probably right, but I think a lot of us make this call.

#6 11-30-2005, 10:20 AM

I'd probably call...you still have 9 outs to fill up if he actually has the straight.

4_2_it · #7 11-30-2005, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably call...you still have 9 outs to fill up if he actually has the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know I'm being a nit - hero has 10 outs (including case 9) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#8 11-30-2005, 10:24 AM

is that how you got 2000 posts :P [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

djoyce003 · #9 11-30-2005, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]

As much as it looks like you are beat, I would probably still call because I cannot lay down a set when a gut shot draw hits.

xorbie is probably right, but I think a lot of us make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a gutshot for 78.

Skuzzy · #10 11-30-2005, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably still call because I cannot lay down a set when a gut shot draw hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont see 78s playing this way? I think it makes more sense than a TAG with QK calling the flop on a gut shot draw. It also fits the preflop limp. Or maybe you thought it too and just missed it in the post and I'm being a nit to a nit [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]