Customizing strategy to the opponent: The passive river guy

#1 12-17-2005, 07:29 PM

I'm really conflicted about my play in this situation. The more I think about it the less decisive I feel, so I'm posting it here.

Background

UTG is loose passive, but especially so on the river. OK, I'll admit my read is shaky, since I've only seen the guy a little while, but what struck me is how passive he plays his big hands.

This was the relevant hand:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (2.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (4.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

So he waited until the river to raise me, hoping I had an A. When I 3-bet I can only think he is afraid of the very few combinations of Kx-Qx[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (see results) . Very few combos there. Seems like overly cautious play to me. I could have paired one of those rags and think he's bluffing, or could have a crappy A, like A2-A4, and have not raised. He probably wouldn't have raised a weak A PF in this situation.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 7s Ts (flush, ace high).
UTG has Js 5s (flush, ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins 10.16 BB. 

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Somewhat Complex Application

UTG from previous hand is now SB. What aspects do you like or dislike about my play in the following hand? There are points I like and those I don't. Unfortunately, it wasn't heads up, so there are many considerations.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

milesdyson · #2 12-17-2005, 07:32 PM

by complex application you mean letting UTG get away with only calling one bet on the turn with his draw? not raising there was criminal

#3 12-17-2005, 07:48 PM

No, that's what I mean by points I don't like.

milesdyson · #4 12-17-2005, 07:52 PM

to be honest i dont really know how the two hands relate to one another, and that's what i was trying to say. you title it "complex application" but i don't know what you're applying or how you're applying it. all i see is a missed turn raise.

#5 12-17-2005, 08:13 PM

Fair enough. The first hand, to me, shows that he's apt to slowplay a big hand HU (since he's not sure I'll stick around if he raises), but mostly that he chickened out a little against my counter aggression on the river.

When he bet that turn, what do you think he has? If he has the nuts, would he or would he not slowplay here? Why wouldn't he check-raise?

I mean complex because UTG is involved, too, so it isn't a straight HU, easy situation.

#6 12-17-2005, 08:13 PM

I can't figure out for the life of me how the second hand relates to the first. SB is passive but seems to hang in to the river. You've also got an obvious shadow in UTG, and by the turn a whole mess of potential draws to beat you.

I see no good rationale for not raising the turn. Everything else standard.

milesdyson · #7 12-17-2005, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When he bet that turn, what do you think he has? If he has the nuts, would he or would he not slowplay here? Why wouldn't he check-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
he has K8, Kx[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], KT, K9, K7, T9, T7, 97, T8, JJ, QQ, AK, and other oddly played hands. i don't think he would bet QJ when he could pretty obviously succeed with a check raise.

#8 12-17-2005, 09:54 PM

That's just it. He's counting on me to raise, trapping the field for 2 bets with the nuts. This guy didn't cap a flush HU on the river. He's not going to bet into the flop raiser and 3-bettor without something much better than most of those holdings.

I think I'm behind a good percentage of the time here.

My only regret was narrowing my read so much. I really should have raised that turn and then folded to a 3-bet. I wussed out and didn't want to have to lay down my straight when I could see a showdown for the same price.

When the board paired on the end, I figured I'd put in a raise to partially cancel out my wussing out, since I knew he'd be scared of some big hand like a boat, since the action the flop looked like someone might have a set. In that case, he wouldn't 3-bet me even if he had the higher straight, and I could extract value if he didn't.

milesdyson · #9 12-18-2005, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm behind a good percentage of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]
so you call with the second nuts and a player padding the pot,

but you raise with the ninth nuts heads up.

also you mention raising and folding to a 3-bet - nay. he failed to 3-bet you on a flush board with two aces out with the third nut flush heads up. this board doesn't look nearly as scary. you just can't make that laydown.

crazygoose · #10 12-25-2005, 05:16 PM

Poker padawan, in most of your posts you are making an assumption that I really don't think is correct most of the time. You are saying that the villain is trying to think what you're thinking and that he distinctly remembers previous hands you played and has the ability to correctly adjust his play based on these previous hands. The first hand shows us we can push this guy around a bit when we want to get to showdown cheaply. I don't really seeing it applying ot the second hand. Even if we are behind sometimes on the turn, there is only one hand SB is three betting with (QJ) and I think we can assume a good amount of the time that UTG will call two cold and one for sure to allow us to make this raise every time. If you think you are behind a good percentage of the time then just call the river. You lost money by playing the second hand that way. I think the first hand supports raising the turn knowing that SB probably won't three bet and we will gain money from UTG. The fact he didn't cap the river in the first hand isn't that bad and that doesnt mean he will on ly be three betting the nuts on the turn in the second hand.