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  #11  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:52 PM
ZeroPointMachine ZeroPointMachine is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thinking process and tell me where i am wrong

Only 2 players have been eliminated so far... Last few hands have been allin and everyone folds...

If there are 4 hands in a row where it is push/fold then we know with the 100/200blinds we are getting to that stage with 7 still in. I need to find a hand soon and I may not see a better one than this for a while.

I only have 1200 chips left and after the next few hands will only have 900 left so i need to look for a chance to double up.

I put him on a range of any pair, Any ace with 9+ kicker, KQ and maybe KJ.

that makes me a conflip agisnt 10 hand
A big dog to 3 pairs
A dog to Ak
A fav to 5 other hands.

I think this makes it a true coinflip decision.

Now if i had thought about it like this before I made the call i would have folded... interesting... I figured I looked good.

I just need about 3 minutes to make decissions and i could make the right one.

I call, he shows 44 and it holds up

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking along the right lines, but this analysis is flawed. You can't just pick a range of hands and assume they are all equally likely. Unpaired hands can be made more wys than paired hands. Your cards also change the number of possible ways he can make each hand.

In this hand he is less likely to have AA or QQ than 66. Because you hold one of the aces.

AK can be made 16 ways and a pair can only be made 6 ways. When you hold an Ace then AK(or Ax) can only be made 12 ways, but it is still twice as likely as JJ.

Can you see how this reduces the chance that you are dominated and increases the chance that you are dominating him.
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  #12  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:52 PM
jmillerdls jmillerdls is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

I think it's definately a call, and the worst thing you are going to see is AK (which is pretty bad). I don't think he'd go all in with AA or KK here after everyone has been folding to the all-in bets previously. I have a feeling this is going to be a coinflip a majority of the time, but you will see AJ ATs enough that I think you have to call.
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  #13  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:54 PM
tjh tjh is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thinking process and tell me where i am wrong


If there are 4 hands in a row where it is push/fold then we know with the 100/200blinds we are getting to that stage with 7 still in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, seems to me though that the all-in stage is usually controlled by one or two persons when it starts with this many players. A read on the pusher would be usefull here. If they have been the aggressor then you can expand the pushing range.

[ QUOTE ]

I need to find a hand soon and I may not see a better one than this for a while.


I only have 1200 chips left and after the next few hands will only have 900 left so i need to look for a chance to double up.

I put him on a range of any pair, Any ace with 9+ kicker, KQ and maybe KJ.

that makes me a conflip agisnt 10 hand
A big dog to 3 pairs
A dog to Ak
A fav to 5 other hands.

I think this makes it a true coinflip decision.


[/ QUOTE ]
Without taking into account that you have an Ace and A Queen.

There are 6 ways of getting any pair.
So any pair hands Villain has 78 possibilities.

7 other hands that can be made 16 diffferent ways for a total of 112 ways.

So Villain is playing one of these 190 possibles.

AA KK QQ you are behind. 18 hands.
AK you are behind 16 hands

You are a fav to AJ AT A9 KJ KQ. 80 hands

Coinflip to the rest AQ an 22->jj 76 hands

Behind 34, ahead 80, coinflip 76.

Looks like a wee bit better than a coinflip.

Of course you having AQ cuts down on the probability of all the ace hands so you may still be correct. I just wanted to post soome numbers to show that AK is about three times as common as AA. The non-paired hands are easier to get so when you think villain has AA or AK he is 3/4 of the time going to have AK.

How do you do this calculation in real life...
I just weight the calling range towards the non-paired hands. One non-paired hand equals about 3 paired hands in terms of frequency.

--
tjh
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  #14  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:18 PM
Snarf Snarf is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think this is a pretty easy call, but oh well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like a results oriented post...if he had AJ or KQ (hands that could easily be pushed here) would this post still exist?

Call - sometimes you're ahead, sometimes its a flip. More often than not I think youre ahead there...

(sometimes you're hosed, but...W)
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  #15  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:20 PM
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

jmiller and tjh... thanks, i learned something today, greatly appreciated
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  #16  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:29 PM
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Folding AK there would be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you misunderstood my post.

If not please explain how folding AK to a flop w/ no A or K, and then a raise is terrible?
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  #17  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:50 PM
kevstreet kevstreet is offline
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Posts: 112
Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding AK there would be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If not please explain how folding AK to a flop w/ no A or K, and then a raise is terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have the luxury of post flop play at this point in the tournament and I think it's safe to safe folding AK pre-flop is terrible.
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  #18  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:00 PM
ellipse_87 ellipse_87 is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

Why are we afraid of a coinflip if we have 50% of the third-largest stack and everyone is in the red zone? I though we were supposed to be looking for coinflips in this situation.
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  #19  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:02 PM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

Never mind the red zone, whatever that actually means anyways, I'm more interested in the fact that several stacks are quite a way ahead of us and we're far from the bubble, which is why my default would be to call as much as anything.
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  #20  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:19 PM
ellipse_87 ellipse_87 is offline
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Default Re: $27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Never mind the red zone, whatever that actually means anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

It means stack sizes vs. cost-per-orbit is so low that no real meaning can be read into all-in bets.
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