Worth it or spewing?

MaxPower · #1 10-14-2005, 10:26 AM

mid-limit 6-max game

UTG is (38/14)
CO is (58/23)
Button is (38/26)

The button is a pretty wild player.

UTG raises, CO cold-calls, Button 3 bets, I call with TT in the Big Blind. UTG and CO call.

4 to the flop for 12.5 sb

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to the button, who bets, I check-raise and everybody calls.

4 to the turn for 10.25 big bets

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG calls, CO calls, Button raises, I call, UTG and CO call.

4 to the river for 18.25 big bets

River K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to the button who bets, I check-raise....

Jeff W · #2 10-14-2005, 10:32 AM

I don't like it. You're probably behind, even to a "pretty wild" player and you're in danger of being cold called by CO or UTG if they have a better hand, to say nothing of how often button will call or reraise with a better hand.

I know you only have to win the pot 2/21.5 times to justify this play, but I think if we plugged the numbers into an expression, we'd see that the odds are too slim.

ALL1N · #3 10-14-2005, 10:32 AM

If you think there's a decent chance you're ahead of the button, 3-bet the turn.

MaxPower · #4 10-14-2005, 11:06 AM

I agree with you. I don't think I get folds from any of the hands that I want to fold often enough to make this raise worthwhile.

That is why I was suprised when they all folded. I cost myself money, I should have them overcall [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

How do you think I should play the turn? Maybe I should check-raise again?

PokerBob · #5 10-14-2005, 11:16 AM

you are risking 2BB to win 19.25....does this work that often?....i dunno, but i bet it's close and will definitely keep your opponents off balance if you get looked up.

MaxPower · #6 10-14-2005, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you are risking 2BB to win 19.25....does this work that often?....i dunno, but i bet it's close and will definitely keep your opponents off balance if you get looked up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, I don't think my opponents in this particular game were thinking players. They were already off balance, I didn't need to do anything special to get them there.