The lottery, The odds, and You

[joshman1204]

I dont know for sure these are just some of the thoughts I had about this topic over the weekend. I wouldnt go as far as to say that the tax implications always make it -EV but i would say that they greatly reduce the number of +EV possibilites. I am sure there is a way of figuring the probability of a split but it would be a guess at best because you dont know how many tickets are sold.

Most lotts put like %40 of ticket sales into the jackpot and the rest goes to various different places. This means that when a lottery jackpot is advertised as $200 million this is based on an estimate of ticket sales. Given the amount of the jackpot at the previous drawing and the estimated amount of the next drawing I would think you could deduce the number of tickets sold.

If %40 of all ticket sakes goto the jackpot and the jackpot increased from 160MM to 200MM for this drawring then would the following be true:

(.4 x X) = 40,000,000

Where X would be the number of tickets sold?


anyone have any other ideas on this topic?