NL Preflop Question - Page 2

Gabe DV · #11 08-13-2005, 12:06 PM

dont have the time to do the math, but i think it is a fold, but a close one, since AK, AA, and QQ are all less likely to be his holding given your hand.

On a side note, what player would really lay down 10's with a stack of 300 and 100 invested, even with those small blinds

Gabe

cwsiggy · #12 08-13-2005, 12:37 PM

Well he said plenty but not sure what that means. I'm saying fold but I"m prolly wrong.

Lmn55d · #13 08-13-2005, 01:01 PM

EV of Allin:

You put him all in for his 300. There are 6 combos of TT, JJ, and KK. There are 3 combos of AA and QQ. There are 12 combos of AK. So 36 total combos. He folds 6/36 of these or 1/6. So 1/6 of the time you win 100+30=130.

5/6 of the time he has JJ-AA or AK and will call you. Against this range, you win about 29% of the time and lose 71% of the time (pokerstove). (.29)(330)+(.71)(-280)= -103.1.

So Total EV when you move all in is (1/6)(130) + (5/6)(-103.1) = -64.25

Folding has an EV of 0.

I'll try to do the EV of calling later. It's the most difficult though.

Shandrax · #14 08-13-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

[/ QUOTE ]

A. All-in preflop:

AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
---------------------
34 -- 5 wins = 14,71%

Pot: 610 -- for your 280 you need 45,90% equity. That's not the case, therefore all-in is wrong.

B. Call
AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
TT (6) -- 42,5% = 2,5 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
---------------------
40 -- 7,5 wins = 18,75%

Pot = 210 -- for your 80 you need 38% pot equity. With 18,75% it looks that this is not the case, BUT the automatic all-in on his part could change the outcome, because if you win, you get 200 more, while you fold if you miss. So it's a question of implied odds. On the other hand if you flop a queen and he has Q-Q you will lose 280. Flopping the 4th queen should happen rarely though. Same problems with the ace.

At this point some expert has to take over because I don't know how to continue the math from here. For instance 15% of the possible card combinations are Q-Q. Chances for the 4th queen to flop are 1:47 (right? We know 4 cards in this case).

Don't forget that my numbers are only estimations because of different suits and such. This small margin of error could turn a close call into a close fold.

Maybe a call turns out to be correct.

USCSigma1097 · #15 08-13-2005, 01:19 PM

The answer to your quesiton is obvious...

Do you see why?

Sigma

Lmn55d · #16 08-13-2005, 01:20 PM

ok EV of Calling:

If you don't flop and Ace of Queen, you don't have odds to call against his range of hands unless you have a flush draw or Straight Draw and even then you might not because he could have a set or you could be going for a split. So I guess I'll just consider whether you flop a pair or not. You flop a pair about 1/3 of the time.

If you flop a queen you are now ahead of TT and JJ and AK, which have 2,2, and 3 outs respectively. You have 5 outs against KK and 2 outs against AA. You have no outs against QQ.

If you flop an A, you are ahead of TT-KK (they have 2 outs) and have 3 outs against AK.

You also could flop both an A and Q, but the odds of this are 32:1 so I'll ignore it.

So about 4/6 of the time you call and fold the flop if it doesn't contain an A or K.

So 1/6 of the time you flop a Q you are ahead of 24 combos and behind 10. So 5/12 of the time that you flop a Q, you are ahead of your opponent. Half the combos have 2 outs (TT,JJ) and against the other half (AK) have 3 outs. So your opponent has 2.5 outs on average. 7/12 of the times you flop a Q, you will be behind. 6/10 of the time you will 5 outs (against KK), 3/10 you will have 2 outs (against AA), and 1/10 of the time you will have 0 outs (against QQ). So on average you have 3.6 outs.

Ok, so of the times when you flop a Q you will go on to win 5/12-(1/10)(5/12) or or about 42% of the time (I think this is right,??). You will lose 7/12-(1/7)(7/12) or about 58% of the time. I guess I could have just ignored the outs your opponents has because it's such a small number when multiplied by the percentage you're ahead/behind...unless I'm doing something wrong.

If you flop an Ace (1/6 of the time) you are ahead of TT(6)+JJ(6)+QQ(3)+KK(6) or 21 combos and behind AK (8 combos). So you are ahead 21/29 of the time and behind 8/29 of the time. We'll ignore outs to make this simpler.

Ok. Total EV of calling:

(4/6)(-80) + (1/6)(.42)(330)+(1/6)(.58)(-280)+(1/6)(21/29)(330)+(1/6)(8/29)(-280) = -30

Folding has highest EV so fold is right.

EDIT: I forgot to make the 80 a -80 in my previous post of this which is why calling came out to be higher EV...it is actually negative EV.

Lmn55d · #17 08-13-2005, 01:48 PM

just a note as I see you're trying to do some math which is good. There are not 6 combinations of AA when you hold AQ, there are 3. Also 3 combos of QQ and 12 of AK.

TheKnife · #18 08-13-2005, 02:02 PM

is the AQ suited??! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Ricardido · #19 08-13-2005, 02:22 PM

foldy fold

TransientR · #20 08-13-2005, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he only folds one of the 7 hands you put him on. And with all the rest he goes all in with an advantage over you unless he also has AQ. I don't know what you mean by 'plenty of chips,' but since it is early, and given the peculiar foreknowledge of his possible hands and actions, I would fold.

It is much more likely he is going all in than not, and with all but AQ he is the favorite. Why he would commit a third of his stack and then fold tens to a raise is a mystery known only to the puzzle maker [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Frank