#1
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100 vs 6500
a friend an i have a bet going on the wsop me. he picks 100 names and i get the field. we did the stats to make it a fair bet bassed on the assumption that a pro is 3x as good as a random player. if none of the 100 make the final table i win x, if one of the 100 make the table and don't win he gets y and if one of the 100 wins he gets z. it works out that i should win x 66% of the time.
here r the names that my friend picked: Yehia "Joe" Awada Chris Bigler Andy Bloch Farzad Bonyadi Humberto Brenes Doyle Brunson Todd Brunson Joe Cassidy "Miami" John Cernuto Johnny Chan David Chiu Paul "Eskimo" Clark TJ Cloutier Dave Colclough Hoyt Corkins Allen Cunningham John D'Agostino Paul Darden Kassem "Freddy" Deeb Charidimos "Harry" Demetriou Asher Derei Annie Duke Antonio Esfandiari Eli Elezra Chris "Jesus" Ferguson Scott Fischman Layne Flack Ted Forrest Prahlad Friedman Bill Gazes Kirill Gerasimov Chau Giang Alan Goehring Phil Gordon Barry Greenstein Mark Gregorich David Grey Hasan Habib Gus Hansen Jennifer Harman-Traniello Dan Harrington Phil Hellmuth, Jr. Juha Helppi John Hennigan Bobby Hoff Can Kim Hua Phil Ivey Chip Jett John Juanda Mel Judah Thomas "Thunder" Keller Hung La Meng La Phil "Unabomber" Laak Nam Le Tuan Le Howard Lederer Alfredo "Toto" Leonidas Kathy Liebert Erick Lindgren Jeffrey Lisandro Marcel Luske Minh Ly Hieu Ngoc "Tony" Ma Lee Markholt Mike Matusow "Minneapolis" Jim Meehan Michael "The Grinder" Mizrachi Juan Carlos Mortensen Daniel Negreanu Men "The Master" Nguyen Minh Nguyen Thuan "Scotty" Nguyen David Oppenheim David Pham Thang "Kido" Pham John Phan Young Phan Paul Phillips David "Chip" Reese Blair Rodman Erik "Erik123" Sagstrom Huck Seed Erik Seidel Mark Seif Charlie Shoten Gavin Smith David Sklansky Surinder Sunar Gabriel Thaler Dewey Tomko Justin Cuong Van "JC" Tran Thithi "Mimi" Tran David "Devilfish" Ulliott Amir Vahedi Ram Vaswani Lee Watkinson David Williams Robert Williamson III Steve Zolotow what do u think about the bet? assumed edge of a pro? names picked? |
#2
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Re: 100 vs 6500
You absolutely got the best of it. nb
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#3
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Re: 100 vs 6500
I think you may have the worst of it here.
I might be misunderstanding the bet though. Is it even money that one of these players will make the final table or not? |
#4
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Re: 100 vs 6500
It definitely looks as if the pro's have learned & adjusted to the large fields and internet amatuers. I would bet that at least 1 out of that 100 will make the final table.
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#5
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Re: 100 vs 6500
[ QUOTE ]
You absolutely got the best of it. nb [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think you may have the worst of it here. I might be misunderstanding the bet though. Is it even money that one of these players will make the final table or not? [/ QUOTE ] Here is Exhibit A for why poker will always be good. Even supposedly studious players don't know how to analyze a situation. Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad? |
#6
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Re: 100 vs 6500
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad? [/ QUOTE ] the exact vaules for x y and z dosen't really need to be told to the world. however they r proportional so that (the chance that one of the 100 does not make the table [66%])*x is as close to equal (the chance for one of the 100 to make the table [28.9%])*y + (the chance one of the 100 wins [4.4%])*z. edit: percentages were wrong |
#7
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Re: 100 vs 6500
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad? [/ QUOTE ] Thug said: [ QUOTE ] it works out that i should win x 66% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] What he meant was that if (at least) one of the 100 makes the Final Table exactly 33.3% of the time, he breaks even. He also listed the assumptions through which x, y, and z were calculated, so shouldn't that be enough? Also, my list rocks. |
#8
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Re: 100 vs 6500
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad? [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts exactly |
#9
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Re: 100 vs 6500
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad? [/ QUOTE ] the exact vaules for x y and z dosen't really need to be told to the world. [/ QUOTE ] Then, give us proportional numbers. For example, if x, y, and z are actually $100, $200, and $300, then tell us to use $5, $10, and $15 to analyze the bet. Telling us about these assumptions you're making isn't really helpful because very few people are going to agree with those assumptions. |
#10
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Re: 100 vs 6500
x : y : z
1 : 1.74 : 3.69 |
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