($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

tigerite you are awesome! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't get a word of all the calculations, but it's still interesting. So we now know that if he minraises a tight range, and calls with an even tighter range, it's -EV to push? Makes sense, because you'll lose your stack relatively often, and there are not so many chips in the pot already that it becomes +EV, right? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

But if you give villain a realistic (looser) range, it's +EV? If you have 600-700 chips it's +EV?

[tigerite]

Well I didn't complete the "what happens after you" part for when people overcall with QQ+,AK+. Actually, I'll do that now I guess.

0.15 * [ (0.166667 * 0.638 * 0.0541) + (0.833333 * 0.638 * 0) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1843) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1847) + .... ) ]

Well we can straight away take out 0.83333 * 0 as that's just 0 and everything else is multiplied by 0.166667 so

0.15 * 0.166667 * { [ 0.362 * (0.1843 + 0.1847 + 0.1429 + 0.1811 + 0.1823 + 0.1807) ] + [ 0.638 * 0.0541 ] }

= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ (0.362 * 1.056) + (0.638 * 0.0541) ]
= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ 0.382272 + 0.0345158 ]
= 0.010419695

From before

0.85 * 0.0867554952
= 0.07374217092

So the actual answer is

0.010419695 (when overcalled) + 0.07374217092 = 0.08416186592

The overcall chance costs you maybe 0.25% $EV. Not a lot but slightly significant.

Anyway it would take me really too long to work out if you have less chips! But I would guess the push would be much better then, yes. Also if he has a looser range we have to define which of that range he calls with. Gimme those two ranges and I can do it.

[45suited]

Nice work tigerite.

The only thing is that I think by using Curtains' parameters, we're giving our opponents way too much credit. (I know that they are valid at his level, but this is a 55.)

Not only do guys mini-raise with weak hands, but we are also giving them way too much credit for reacting perfectly to our push. Do you really think that pushing is bad at a 55, or just that pushing is bad against top notch opposition? Cuz I'm pushing this all day. Just my opinion.

[tigerite]

Well like I say if you gimme a range for a raise and call then I can do it. This goes for the ones to act after you too I guess (but only for what they call with). Now I have all the ICM for the chips when you win/fold/call (I have gone for fold of 0.0935 instead of the SNGPT way which is to assume they all fold to the original raiser, because it's too complicated here if we are assuming ones after Hero call a push with QQ,AK and whatever.. so it's "up in the air" about what happens next, therefore I just assume chip counts as they are in a vacuum with the 175 up for grabs by anyone else) it should be easy.

Let's assume its not a good player (why would a good player minraise UTG in a $55?). There are looser players, but this is at least looser than curtains' ranges.

Range: 77-AA, A9s+, AT+, KQ He calls with ehm... TT+, ATs+, AJ+ . EDIT: I think AJs+, AQ+ is better.

I hope they make sense.

I think it's easily +EV now. Should I give tighter ranges? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[tigerite]

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 77+,A9s+,ATo+,KQ

6 ways for 77,88,99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 42
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ,AT,KQ = 64
4 ways for A9s = 4
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 119 / 1225 = 9.714%

Assume calls with TT+,ATs+,AJo+

6 ways for TT,QQ,KK,AA = 24
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
4 ways for ATs = 4

Total = 69 / 1225 = 5.633%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = (119 - 69) / 119 = 0.420168
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.505928 (against TT+,ATs+,AJo+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.420168 * 0.1083) + (0.579832 * 0 * 0.494072) + (0.579832 * 0.176 * 0.505928) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0455041944 + 0 + 0.051630170960896 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.097134365360896 ]
= 0.0825642105567616

Combine with the 0.010419695 (when overcalled) from before

= 0.0929839055567616

Still less than 0.0935, so it's still a fold, but extremely marginal now.

Meh.. Is it +EVer when he folds ATs and AJo ?

[tigerite]

No it's actually less.

Assume calls with TT+,AJs+,AQo+

6 ways for TT,QQ,KK,AA = 24
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
2 ways for AJs = 2

Total = 59 / 1225 = 4.816%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = (119 - 59) / 119 = 0.504202
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.475068 (against TT+,AJs+,AQo+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.504202 * 0.1083) + (0.495798 * 0 * 0.524932) + (0.495798 * 0.176 * 0.475068) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0546050766 + 0 + 0.041454646510464 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.096059723110464 ]
= 0.0816507646438944

+ 0.010419695 = 0.0920704596438944

I have a headache now. Can someone just tell me the final answer?