15/30 Raise the overcards here?

[thesharpie]

Raise, raise raise, raise raise, raise, raise raise it up.

[B Dids]

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Raise, raise raise, raise raise, raise, raise raise it up.

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Why?

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Really good game. I feel like I would have raised if i had just one club.... but I didn't without. Flop donker was clowny but very likely to have a 7 and was not solely a draw donker.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>....???

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Your getting 15-1 to call. The question is should you raise or call? I believe if a raise can increase your probability of winning this big pot by even just a few percentage points than a raise is warranted. Based on my read the villain has either a pair or a flush draw. If the villain is on a flush draw than raising is vital as we would want to get any pair draw out of there. If the villain has a pair, the hero is not in a bad spot to raise either. By raising the hero may still be able to take a free card on the turn if someone else cold calls the heros flop raise. Overall, if there even a slight chance that the villain can have a flushdraw here then the hero must raise. Since the hero already has the odds to call, investing one more small bet is necessary if it will improve the heros chance of winning this large pot, and I think it will. So I would raise.

[Mister Z]

I guess what you're wondering is if your raise looks so obvious as being 2 big cards trying to fold out your opponents in this big pot. Not to mention that your raise is close to giving great implied odds to a 4-6 outter. Either way, I think you have to do what you can here to increase your chances of winning this large pot. I think calling would be weak-fancy. Pop it.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I think we need much better reads before making a decision on this one. CO's description sort of confuses me. Why do you think he likely has a 7 if he is clowny? Is he passive postflop? What about UTG and MP2? What hands do they play like that preflop? Would UTG fold 88 if you raise?

As a default, I tend to agree with W.D. that people raise here with overcards way too often. I think this could be a good spot to raise though depending on the answer to those read questions.

[silkyslim]

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its good that you have position on this fool. the pot is big and you need to clean up outs. i'd raise here but I think you can raise the turn too if you think he'll fire again with a draw.

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What outs are you cleaning up with a raise aside from the times UTG also has AK?

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what is with people on the forum always asking what outs we are clearing? You need to protect your hand, plain and simple. You can fold out anyone with 6 outs against you, a pocket pair, maybe another AK you chop with.

[Aces McGee]

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what is with people on the forum always asking what outs we are clearing? You need to protect your hand, plain and simple. You can fold out anyone with 6 outs against you, a pocket pair, maybe another AK you chop with.

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Because cleaning up outs (like folding another AK) is different than protecting your hand (knocking out hands with six outs to beat you) or getting a better hand to fold (knocking out a pocket pair). These are important differences.

-McGee

[tpir90036]

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I think we need much better reads before making a decision on this one. CO's description sort of confuses me. Why do you think he likely has a 7 if he is clowny? Is he passive postflop?

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Sadly I did not have super a amazing read for the CO outside of the PA/PT stats. He had not shown down many hands. I put his range at any one pair hand (a 7 or 88-TT) and possibly a draw. I do not think he would have played a 4 like this.

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Would UTG fold 88 if you raise?

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This is kind of why I didn't raise because I don't think that he would. He seemed reasonably tight pre-flop but his showdown % was really high. I might have been able to get rid of him on the turn though.

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As a default, I tend to agree....that people raise here with overcards way too often. I think this could be a good spot to raise though depending on the answer to those read questions.

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I think I raise too often in this spot myself. But I think it's worth a SB in this spot since I am definitely calling and there is lots of value in knocking out other 6-out hands if I am going to spike or in the possibly unlikely scenario that AK is the best hand.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Based on this, I'd call then. I need to know I am still ahead of CO a reaonably high % of the time to raise. We can't protect our hand if we aren't ahead.

I think W.D.'s analysis of why calling is better is spot on.

Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important.

[mtdoak]

To paraphrase David Sklansky from SSH: On the flop, when a player to your immediate right bets, you should almost always raise or fold

I like a raise here and going for the free card on the turn. I'd like it alot more of there were a spade here. If he 3 bets I'm probably calling the 3 bet and mucking unimproved on the turn. Of course, you could always fold....