Bay 101 - 20/40 semibluff hand

[Dazarath]

LAG open-raises UTG+1. From what I've seen, his raising standards are definitely a little loose, but he won't be showing down complete trash. Folded to hero in BB with KTo who calls.

Flop is J9x. Hero checks. LAG bets. Hero raises. LAG 3-bets. Hero calls.

I feel that I have at least 7 outs, and that it may be possible to push him off of a weak pair (either pocket pair or a 9). Also, the flop is an auto-bet for him and the 3-bet is probably close to automatic as well.

Turn 8. Hero checks. LAG bets. Hero raises, planning to call a 3-bet and fold the river UI.

Keep in mind, this is not a standard play for me. I only pull stuff like this occasionally.

[xniNja]

I think it's good to pull stuff like this occasionally, but in my opinion, it's best to semi-bluff when there is a good chance the opponent will fold. It doesn't sound like you think he's going to fold, but at least call, and probably 3-bet... I wouldn't make the play in that spot.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's good to pull stuff like this occasionally, but in my opinion, it's best to semi-bluff when there is a good chance the opponent will fold. It doesn't sound like you think he's going to fold, but at least call, and probably 3-bet... I wouldn't make the play in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with the above statement, trying these type of plays vs a lag will usually end up costing you money in the long run. These type of plays work best against a person who is trying to play well, basically someone who can fold.

[esspo]

[ QUOTE ]
Lag open-raises UTG+1

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true.

[ QUOTE ]
and that it may be possible to push him off of a weak pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Then this is wrong.

This sounds like it has to be -EV in the specific hand. Do you think that showing yourself to be a little LAGgy yourself here will earn you the EV you're dropping here?

[TStoneMBD]

this hand is quite a dilemna, and i think it shows a good reason for you to strongly consider folding this preflop even against a lag, but it really depends on what his opening standards are. if they are close to normal then i think you should fold. hands like KTo do not play well out of position.

after youve flopped your gutshot, excluding metagame considerations, you are almost giving him money by check-calling and playing this hand as a hit or miss. therefore, you have decided to take an aggressive approach and make a play for the pot. however, you are against a lag here! youve checkraised a gutshot when you knew you were probably going to get 3bet. thats pretty ugly.

however, once you realize that there is a good chance that you are going to get 3bet, you really have to make another play for this pot on the turn to justify the money you are giving him by chasing your gutshot with poor odds. at least you realize this. however, keep in mind that this guy is a lag! he may end up 3betting you again and you are just paying out of the nose.

i really dont think you are going to make money by trying to make bluff attempts out of position against a lag like this. as a result, youve let a poor player outplay you simply because he is aggressive with position.

therefore, i vote for folding preflop.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]


Also, the flop is an auto-bet for him and the 3-bet is probably close to automatic as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then your c/r makes no sense. Why would you want to put three bets in here with no chance of taking the pot down and no momentum on the turn?

I think check call the flop and check raise the turn and bet any river, folding to a raise unimproved.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
therefore, i vote for folding preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis up to this conclusion. Getting 3.5:1 to see the flop with KT , seems like its worth it just playing fit or fold vs. an aggro who will give you good action when you hit a pair or better.

[Dazarath]

esspo: Just because he's a LAG doesn't mean he's going to see showdown everytime. He's not a complete maniac and he does know that there's other options besides betting/raising. I just know that his betting/raising standards are lower than a lot of people's.

NoahSD: Yes, this particular hand is probably -EV. However, I end up in the situation a lot, where someone will notice that I don't play as many hands or give as much action as others. There's a lot of potential EV lost when I raise UTG with AA and win the blinds because everyone thinks I'm a tight-ass. Now, whether or not this hand was a good spot to make an advertising play without too much -EV, that's what I'm reading the responses to figure out.

TStoneMDB: I agree with your analysis, except for a couple parts. I don't see why I wouldn't have at least 7 outs (K outs + gutshot) or maybe even up to 10. Also, keep in mind that I don't do these sort of bluff attempts often. I was just trying one out because I figure 1 of 2 things will happen: I'll win the pot, or I'll get noticed as more of an action player, both of which are good for me. The question is, how -EV was this play?

[J.A.Sucker]

You should fold the KTo in the BB. Easy fold, especially when you look at the rake in that game. I'd even fold it in a time game.

On the flop, I don't think you have that many outs - maybe only 4 (less if he has a Q, of course). Still, you'll get action if you hit it, so I like check-calling. Making plays against guys who won't fold and who probably have a better hand and who definately have better position on you is a good way to go broke.

You make money against these guys by getting action when you have the best hand.