I hate these hands...PP 15/30

[Sully]

PP 15/30, ten handed. The button and both blinds have been LAGging it up for an hour. UTG is a decent player, and is very aware of the value of isolation here. He has been running very well.

UTG Raises, and I reraise from UTG +1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Folded around to UTG who calls.

Flop is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Check, I bet, he calls.

Turn is T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Check, I bet, he calls.

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He bets and I call.

Is this a way ahead / way behind situation on the turn? I couldn't do it at the time, but this seems like a good place to check behind on the turn and see the river for one more bet, unless I hit my gutshot.

Fold the river? I called here, largely because I had just gotten done posting a hand where I made a weak fold on the river after similar action and a river donk.

Thanks for the help.

I hate those hands too.



Unless he puts you on AQ, he's value betting the river here.

Or, he suspects he can pick you off QQ with his JJ by making a river bet here.

Tough call.

[DeeJ]

He knows that with the K on the board, if you've both got AK he's tied. If you've got AK or AQ or AJ he's ahead with 77 or 99. As far as he can tell there's no real draw on the flop, and only a thin one on the turn with your hand range. I guess he's on AK here more than anything else. But he could have QJ and want the extra bet, or maybe 3 if you raise the river, being unwilling to raise the turn and push you off a totally missed hand like AQ.

He could have a random bluff holding like K9 or T7 though if he's tricky. I don't think you can play this any differently without being totally weak; he could have TT or JJ after all and be a donk.

I believe you must call this, whenever I am heads up against an opponent and he check calls me on the flop and turn and then bets out the river I get very suspicious and I will call him with ace high sometimes. Usually when an opponent takes this line heads up it means a monster or a bluff, All you have right now is a bluff catcher and the pot is laying you good odds to catch this bluff so a call is profitable in my opinion.

[mscags]

I think this is a good place to check the turn and call the river. I want to see a showdown with this hand, but I don't want to get pushed off of the best hand. Are you folding to a turn check raise?

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a good place to check the turn and call the river. I want to see a showdown with this hand, but I don't want to get pushed off of the best hand. Are you folding to a turn check raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can safely fold to a turn checkraise as you may have up to 6 outs (2 Q's & 4 J's), add in the fact that its the party 15 and you are getting about the right price to call a checkraise. Then you are faced with an uncomfortable river situation if you miss.

Which is why I think this is a good place to check the turn and call a river bet. If behind, you'd like a free shot at improving, and if you're ahead there aren't a lot of cards that can hurt you.

[TJD]

These are always difficult situations but the problem with checking behind is that you lose a BB against JJ, TT, 88 who may call you down. Since this player is good, he is less likely to have peeled on the flop, but even so, would taking one off with AQ or AJ be that bad? He might just do it to see what you do on the turn. If you check you are making a FTOP mistake here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

It is true that you are probably not giving him many free outs if you are ahead and also true that you would very much like to NOT be checkraised if he has a K.

Knowing the player is very useful here. As others have pointed out, versus the "default" player it is probably not far from neutral EV to call a CR here.

If this player is not tricky then betting and folding to a CR is the best play.

If he has a bit of chicanery then the small EV you lose from being CR is more than compensated for by the times you get a call with a weaker hand.

I agree it is ugh! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Trevor

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check you are making a FTOP mistake here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]OMG OMG NOOOOO! NOT A FTOP MISTAKE!
seriously, i dont get the obsession most of this board has with this... maybe i dont know how to play limit.

[TJD]

Flawless_victory,

I have read a lot of your posts and you quite obviously DO know how to play limit. It seems clear to me that your experience is far greater than mine.

Presumably this means that there is something wrong with MY analysis that failing to bet when you have the best hand is a mistake.

Now, I know that by giving him a free card with his Ace, we may induce a bluff and that may be worth the risk if we can be sure he will bluff the river often enough. However, as I understand it, giving the free card would be a FTOP error according to the definition.

In ALL games we sometimes go against what is "correct" in theory for tactical reasons. Inducing a bluff (on the "given" that he has AJ or AQ) would be to accept that we were breaking FTOP in order to get what we think will be a better return. That would be a reasonable decision if we thought the circumstances were right.

Could you explain your reaction to me? I just don't get it the outburst [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I must be missing something. It would be appreciated. I am new to the board and do not wish to cause offence.

Trevor

[LA_Price]

I don't play much limit anymore but I usually check the turn here and call a river bet. If my pair is lower I usually bet the turn.