Trying to fold a better hand, 10/20 AQo

Subfallen · #1 10-12-2005, 03:00 PM

5-handed game. CO is a predictable clown, plays pretty much every hand and ALWAYS bets when he has a pair. Always. SB is decent, probably views me as too aggro pre-flop but I haven't really gotten out of line against him postflop.

I don't remember the exact turn card, but it was either a T, J, or K. I'm curious of how much you guys like play for each card.

Preflop I get A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
1 fold, CO limps, I raise, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls

Flop (8.5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to me, I bet, SB c/raises, BB folds, CO cold-calls, I call

Turn (7.5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets, CO calls, I raise

Surfbullet · #2 10-12-2005, 03:10 PM

I don't like it at all. If SB is decent he's going to call the turn with any pair to try and improve given pot size, and while CO is a donk CCing 2 on the flop puts him very often on some crappy pair, sometimes a FD and rarely overs. This leaves you having to bet a non-club river (while checking and most likely losing on a club river, if you don't get donked) into 2 opponents hoping they both fold and the SB finds a way to fold a 7 or other pair on the river for 1 bet in a big pot.

wayyyy too many things have to go right here for this to work. If CO hadn't called to cold on the flop, and you could face him with 2 cold on the turn, i'd say go for it - the chances that SB is on a draw are good enough that you can use your position well. With them both already in for 1 bet, and both having paid multiple bets on the flop, I think you are winning this without a showdown like 5% of the time.

Surf

Subfallen · #3 10-12-2005, 03:18 PM

I admit I made a fairly close-minded assessment of SB's range on the flop. I put him on exactly 22-88, A7s, or a flush draw. I had no idea of CO's range except that he didn't have a pair b/c he didn't bet the flop.

What's your opinion of that thought process on the flop?

I was not planning to bet the river unimproved.

Surfbullet · #4 10-12-2005, 03:49 PM

Hey Subfallen,

Even with your hand-range, SB is only folding 44,55, and 66 that beat you. 2nd pair, or an overpair to 2nd pair, is not folding with any regularity. Additionally, he could have 87s or even 99 or TT if he's not that aggressive preflop. The problem lies in that there are very few hands that beats us that will fold immediately on the turn. Most will peel to the river to try and improve(A7/87/A3 has to call a turn raise in this big pot to try and hit trips / 2pair), and you will have to bet again on the river to try and fold him ( which he may or may not do, depending on the river card and how bad he is).

Additionally, I don't think we can put CO strictly on no pair just because he didn't bet... people do unpredictable things in this game...he could be slowplaying AA...or holding 43 which he doesn't want to bet but certainly is going to chase. These are extreme cases but just because you've seen him bet his pairs a few times doesn't mean he always bets his pairs, especially in a big multiway pot.

There's no telling whether either of them hit this turn broadway card, anyway. CO just calls the turn, but there's been lots of action and it would not be atypical for a bad player to stick to calldown mode with JT (assuming teh turn was a J).

I just don't think this scenario pans out well. We are risking 2 bets to win 9 and I don't think this works given the action and the players more than 18%.

Anyway I kind of just rehashed my original post there...I like your idea, and it's good to see a player working on a thinking play based on player reads...but too much has to go right for you to win this hand. Keep up the observant play, though.

Surf

Subfallen · #5 10-12-2005, 03:53 PM

Thanks Surf---this is great material!

As is usually the case with this type of post [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img], it worked for me this time...SB folded and after check-check on the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] river MHIG against CO's A5o.

But you've convinced me this play should only be attempted if SB is verifiably weak-tight. Yeah, only then.