Confidence Boosting -- 10/20 Hand #4 (of 4)

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn 3 bet gives information, folds buttons overcards, and often allows him to get to sd cheaper by a turn or river check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like your analysis of the flop/turn plan except for the gain information part. Really the only hand you gain information about is the button's, but if he has a good hand you are paying 2 bbs to find out. The bb will nearly always just call the flop 3-bet if button drops and will let you know what he has on the turn. I think Schneider's plan was to get to sd as cheaply as possible while not letting the button draw to overcards, and you hit this right on.

I don't like the turn check, however, regardless of the card that hits. The range of hands the bb will check raise this flop with is fairly large and will include nearly all of his one pair holdings, most of which the OP has beat. I would be looking to protect my hand with a turn bet no matter what card hit (except maybe 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea what you are doing here. if you think you are behind, as the turn check indicates, why do you 3bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


not that I necessarily agree with the 3-bet, but there's a big difference between the flop 3-bet and the turn check. the turn check basically means he values his 5 potential outs more than the value of an additional bet. the flop 3-bet is mostly dictated by his pot odds, which justify staying in, and 3-betting is mandatory to blow the button off a couple of overs. if the button caps it or calls 2 and bets the turn, schneids has a pretty easy fold

he's probably best here around half the time so there's very little value in betting. also, checking the turn might induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would've folded (doubtful).

let's say he bet the turn and was called. the river is a pretty thin value bet. so he's getting 1 bet from this guy either way, and he'd rather maximize his chances of sucking out if he's behind. he also won't get blown off the best hand this way, though that is also doubtful.

I don't think there's much difference between any of the 3 lines (check then bet or call, bet then check, or bet then bet again) since he's probably close 50/50 with this guy

EDIT: I missed that he has a heart draw. I think he has to bet because the extra bet he gains on the river when he connects far outweighs him getting c/r'ed on the turn

[Trix]

I´d check the turn because I dont want him to fold TT- and most people will end up curious enough to pay off with those at the end. It looks like you are worried that you are behind though.
If I thought I was behind here often, then I´d rather bet the turn, so I can get another bet in when I improve. I dont think you will get check-raised here very often.
Probably just when he has QJ or 77,22.

[imported_stealthcow]

mike-

can you do us all a huge huge favor and follow the instructions on this link:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...amp;o=&vc=1

post an hour long session of you playing. pls pls pls pls pls...

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
mike-

can you do us all a huge huge favor and follow the instructions on this link:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...amp;o=&vc=1

post an hour long session of you playing. pls pls pls pls pls...

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. pls pls pls pls. pls. pls.

For those that think this is an easy turn check, why?
I think it's an easy bet considering how low the c/r % is on this turn. We might be behind to a higher jack or big pair, but that's about it. Can't give the BB credit for a set with his isolation c/r on the flop, and also hard to figure him for a queen unless it's QJ. We have no worries about that whole "can't bet the turn because calling a c/r sucks when we have outs" philosophy here. The chances of getting c/red are low and the chances that we may be ahead of A7s, TT, 99, 88 aren't low. We also don't want to give out free cards when that's the case.

Fire away.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah yeah I missed the hearts. That makes the check look good. Still what I said stands about bet/folding for free SD on a blank. Don't see why that wouldn't be better than his line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it makes poker decisions easier (good or bad?) and because coming from higher stakes games if I was playing this hand it's more likely the BB has me beat (AJ/KJ/QJ/set) and will be checkraising/or check calling the turn with the better hand yet still bluffing often enough that I'm going to hate folding in this huge pot. In 10/20 I guess it must be better to bet this turn and if still facing reservations check through the river.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
For those that think this is an easy turn check, why?
I think it's an easy bet considering how low the c/r % is on this turn. We might be behind to a higher jack or big pair, but that's about it. Can't give the BB credit for a set with his isolation c/r on the flop, and also hard to figure him for a queen unless it's QJ. We have no worries about that whole "can't bet the turn because calling a c/r sucks when we have outs" philosophy here. The chances of getting c/red are low and the chances that we may be ahead of A7s, TT, 99, 88 aren't low. We also don't want to give out free cards when that's the case.

Fire away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I argued this with Josh a lot last night already but when we're ahead here, opponent either has 3 outs (jack lower kicker...slim), a lower PP (2 outs), or mid pair + kicker (5 outs) and I guess it depends on what your estimation is that J9 is good on the turn, but giving a free card doesn't hurt you a ton if your estimation that your hand is good isn't that high.

I wouldn't say your chances of being ahead are extremely high either. For arguments sake (please no one hold me to these figures) let's say you're ahead 50% and behind 50%. In that case, this is a clear bet, no? Just for the simple fact that you have a ton of outs when behind and he doesn't. Don't be too concerned with him folding for lone turn bet either. You will get called if he has TT or 99. These games aren't as solid as the ones you're used to.

Much of the discussion in question has to do with the generalization of unknown 10/20 players. Average (NOT solid) 10/20 players play pretty much like they would in casino "3 card poker". They bet 'pair plus' and continue with any pair HU because one day someone told them a pair is big heads up. Also, where you might expect an expert check raise on the turn in 100/200, you won't see it that often in 10/20 after significant flop action. Check raises run rampid in 10/20 for small HU pots, but not here.

Of course, this is all assumptive based on categorizing an unknown 10/20 player. Everyone's views on that may be different from their own experiences.

Just my opinon.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For those that think this is an easy turn check, why?
I think it's an easy bet considering how low the c/r % is on this turn. We might be behind to a higher jack or big pair, but that's about it. Can't give the BB credit for a set with his isolation c/r on the flop, and also hard to figure him for a queen unless it's QJ. We have no worries about that whole "can't bet the turn because calling a c/r sucks when we have outs" philosophy here. The chances of getting c/red are low and the chances that we may be ahead of A7s, TT, 99, 88 aren't low. We also don't want to give out free cards when that's the case.

Fire away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I argued this with Josh a lot last night already but when we're ahead here, opponent either has 3 outs (jack lower kicker...slim), a lower PP (2 outs), or mid pair + kicker (5 outs) and I guess it depends on what your estimation is that J9 is good on the turn, but giving a free card doesn't hurt you a ton if your estimation that your hand is good isn't that high.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm 99% sure that betting the turn is best, and you know how scared of disagreeing with you I am

you're going to call the river. you aren't getting checkraised that often. you gain an extra bet when you hit one of your 12 outs (two pair of flush), which is pretty frequent compared to the times you get checkraised. there is no guarantee he will bet the river if you check. if there was checking would make sense since you make the 2 bets on the river.

it's 10/20, not 100/200. the typical player is not that tricky