Bad call?

gjpure · #1 12-23-2005, 01:26 PM

Was playing 200 max NL live in the casino this past Tuesday. A new table just started, so we all sat down at the same time with the same amount of chips. Right away it became obvious that there was this super agressive bully type who was cleary controlling the table and not afraid to reload if he lost. Anyway, I was folding mostly for the first hour, trying to stay the heck out of the way of this maniac, but at the same time observing and trying to get a feel for him and everyone else. Well a hand comes where he raises in EP and I call in the blind with AJ off. The flop comes with a K and all spades. I hold the A of spades and am first to act. The pot is about $50 and I am first to act and I bet $30, hoping to take it right there, which I was able to do to him once before. Well, he moves AI for $180 total, which he had been doing several times to people. I know he could have anything, but likely only has a K. I am confident that a spade or an A will win me the pot. Now, I am terrible at calculating my odds in a spot like this, but this is a common scenario. Now, if this was anyone else I probally would have just checked, or bet and folded to his AI. But since it was him, I called and said "I am only calling cause it it you." Turned out he had something like K9 and won the pot. Later, I rebought and walked away with over $500, but that one particular pot was one of my few bad decisions of the session and I justified it because of the type of player he was. What were my odds to win the pot assuming that I was "pretty confident" that a spade or A would win? Also, with all things considered was is a good call? In other words, might it send the message to not go AI on me again, or would that only send that signal if I won the pot? I wasnt afraid to play with him, but at the same time he was an agressive player who knew how to play. IF I would have just checked and he bet, I would have just folded. Obviously my pot odds were also terrible, but when I put it all together I "felt" a call was appropriate at that point. Thoughts?

pzhon · #2 12-23-2005, 02:08 PM

Why would you stay out of a maniac's way? He's trying to give his money away. Don't run from him. Outplay him and take his money.

You're trying to count outs and pot odds. You are forgetting that there is a very good chance that your ace-high is good, and that he has just one low spade or nothing at all.

Given the actual hand, you had a coin-toss, and could call even if it were $600 more.

mxer7734 · #3 12-23-2005, 02:17 PM

Pot is ($50 orginal, your $30 bet, his $30call + additional $150 raise = $260) Pot odds are 260:150 or 1.73:1. If you think your outs to the ace are good you can account for an addition 3 outs on top of the 9 for the flush for 12 outs. For a 12 out draw you need 2.8:1 odds which you clearly dont have. On a mathematical standpoint this is a clear fold.

Yads · #4 12-23-2005, 06:38 PM

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Pot is ($50 orginal, your $30 bet, his $30call + additional $150 raise = $260) Pot odds are 260:150 or 1.73:1. If you think your outs to the ace are good you can account for an addition 3 outs on top of the 9 for the flush for 12 outs. For a 12 out draw you need 2.8:1 odds which you clearly dont have. On a mathematical standpoint this is a clear fold.

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Except that your calculations are with 1 card to come. OP had 2 cards to go with a 12 out draw you need slightly better than 1:1 to call. I think this is the easiest call ever if you figure your 12 outs are good factored in with the fact that some of the time your Ace high will be ahead.

mxer7734 · #5 12-23-2005, 06:42 PM

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Except that your calculations are with 1 card to come. OP had 2 cards to go with a 12 out draw you need slightly better than 1:1 to call

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Thanks for correcting me, I dont know why I thought it was on the turn.

gjpure · #6 12-27-2005, 10:39 AM

I figured out that it was roughly a coin flip, with him being a slight favorite. But pot odds did not justify it, and I dont think even playing the player in the case was worth it. I could have waited for a better spot to put him in his place and make him think twice about coming over the top on me. I definitely didn't consider A high to be good. I knew he was solid enough to at least have a K. Thanks for the responses.

Bulldog · #7 12-27-2005, 12:28 PM

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I figured out that it was roughly a coin flip, with him being a slight favorite. But pot odds did not justify it, and I dont think even playing the player in the case was worth it. I could have waited for a better spot to put him in his place and make him think twice about coming over the top on me. I definitely didn't consider A high to be good. I knew he was solid enough to at least have a K. Thanks for the responses.

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You logic is ugly here. You figure out this:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1428459
pokenum -h as jd - kh 9h -- ks 7s 4s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 7s 4s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jd 456 46.06 534 53.94 0 0.00 0.461
Kh 9h 534 53.94 456 46.06 0 0.00 0.539

That is, that it is a coin flip with your opponent a slight favorite. So you need very little in the pot to justify this call. You had more than enough. Besides, this maniac could've had far less than kings. The other three jacks may have been good if he had middle or bottom pair, or you may have been leading if he had a hand like Qs Jd or something. I call in your spot with that hand against an aggressive player much more often than not.

greg nice · #8 12-27-2005, 12:42 PM

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Anyway, I was folding mostly for the first hour, trying to stay the heck out of the way of this maniac,

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haha. i was tilting at party 10/20nl the other day and one of the fish says, "this guys tilting. im leaving because this is getting silly. watch out for him. be careful." LOL