Play A Hand With The Triple Threat (Turn Part 2)

[grandgnu]

POKERSTARS $10+1 MTT
641 PLAYERS (TOP 63 PAY)

BLINDS: (10/20)

BUTTON Seat 1: anonymous1 (1500 in chips)
SMALL BLIND Seat 2: anonymous2(1500 in chips)
BIG BLIND Seat 3: anonymous3(1500 in chips)
Seat 4: anonymous4(1500 in chips)
Seat 5: VILLIAN(1500 in chips)
Seat 7: anonymous5(1500 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO(1500 in chips)

anonymous2: posts small blind 10
anonymous3: posts big blind 20
pot 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

anonymous4: folds

VILLIAN: calls 20

anonymous5: folds

HERO: raises 60 to 80

VILLIAN: calls 60

POT=210 CHIPS

FLOP: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian checks

HERO: Bets 120

(I will cease to provide reasoning until the "results and final comments" post)

VILLIAN: Calls 120

POT=450

Turn is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

VILLIAN: Checks

HERO: Bets 200

VILLIAN: check-raises an additional 340 to 540 (leaving himself 760 behind)

POT= 1,190
HERO: has 1,100 chips remaining of his 1,500 starting

What do you do now, and why?

[Rduke55]

Call or push, call or push? That's a tough one.
I'm not laying it down to that action. The relatively small raise is odd though and may be him miling us.
I was thinking about calling but Screw It.
Push.

(but I'm not married to it - O can see calling and reevaluating)

[madmisha]

I call with the plan of calling a river bet unimproved or betting myself, if checked to.

[schwza]

i call. unless the river is an A or 9, call any on the river. not sure what to do if he checks.

[Toro]

You didn't follow my advice. You should have checked the turn. Now you're fcked, might as well push, it's all going in anyway.

[Jbrochu]

If I had played it this way, I now fold. You still have t1100 and the blinds are only 10/20.

[nightlyraver]

This is a very easy call. The tougher question is whether we should move in.

First - there is most probably a very low chance that this is a bluff. If it is, he is folding to any raise. It would take a lot of stones and a lot of stupidity to bluff this w/ nothing.

Second - There is probably a very low chance that Villian has 2-pair or worse given that he check-raised this turn. The possibility does exist that he has something like AdKc, but this does not fit the preflop action.

Third - The chance exists, but it is still a small chance, that he has a set of tens. He may have been "slowplaying" the flop and now he check-raised in case you have something like AdQs. Still, this is an unlikely holding.

All of this said, we are most probably slightly behind faced with very favorable pot odds and implied odds.

First - Villian could have AJ or J9. This is consistent with the prior action of limp, loose call, slowplay on flop and now he is protecting against a river one-card flush. In this case we are about 43% to win, making it a huge error to even think about folding

Second - Villian could have a made flush. Jd9d is very consistent with the betting. We are behind, but we still are 35% to win, again making it an easy call. However, if Villian already has the nut flush, we are only 22% to fill up. But we are still being offered excellent pot odds PLUS we win his whole stack when we do fill up. Again, our call is easy even if we KNOW that he has a hand like Ad9d, which is also very consistent with the betting.

Third - Villin has KK. This is definately a possibility. He was slowplaying up until now and wants to protect against the one-card river flush. The check-raise is not all that consistent with KK though. If we KNOW he has KK, only then should we lay it down since we are only offered 3.5:1 at this point and he will NOT pay off our draw. However, we can't know he has this hand, and if we did, we should semi-bluff raise as this is the only better hand that will lay down.

Having all this said, we have a very easy call. Now that I worked through it, there is almost no reason to raise and every reason to call. The only problem will be on the river if we do not improve and Villian makes a big bet. I suspect this is what will happen...

[grandgnu]

River post: The River

[kuro]

I'd just push now, play is really bad early and villain will call with a lot of draws that you have crushed. If villain is ahead with the flopped straight or turned flush, you've got outs. I don't like just calling because a lot of the drawing hands that will call the push on the turn won't call a bet when they miss the river.

[EverettKings]

Well isn't this a b*tch of a spot.

I call, planning to call/push a nondiamond river. If he's making a play at you, let him hang himself. Otherwise this is a way ahead/way behind thingy.