15-30 flop decision

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
What button?

"You don't want to be marked with an overpair when the board is this scary."

Could you elaborate on this Rick? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meant cutoff, not button. I'll be brief because I just spent too much time rewriting my complaint about the line that changed in the director's cut of Das Boot in the OOT "Best Submarine Movie" thread. I think you've heard it before but it's worth repeating [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Anyway, it's possible based on the action for the cutoff, limper, and mike l to be on big draws or pair/draw combos but if lmd check-reraises here he is marking himself with an overpair. A lead bet or call of the checkraise combined with the other action would make it seem possible lmd has big overcards with a draw, a hand that can take far more heat. By check reraising three opponents (including one tough one) and a small-coordinated board that can't help the overpair his opponents can easily put the screws to him later in the hand. And with mike l. in the pot you know they will [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a vote for not nuts. I too, though, would have trouble folding here though I did fold pocket queens in a very similar situation the other day. The river action told me I had made an error; that is, that I was ahead when I folded on the flop. But I'm 99.9% sure I was behind on the river. That's likely the problem with this hand; as you say, there's a long way to go.

mike never raised pre-flop despite two opportunities and now bets into a capper. Now that I think of it, I think I would find a fold, rightly or wrongly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It just seems like lmd might be leading here as much as 40% of the time on the flop but it's a race to the finish and his tires are flat, he has no spare or pump, he is out of water, and crawling just won't get there first enough to end the hand plus EV.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

Aren't the other men () more likely to put the screws on him if they think he has just overcards or a draw than if he has a big overpair?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't the other men () more likely to put the screws on him if they think he has just overcards or a draw than if he has a big overpair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking of the bigger betting rounds. Overcards with the flush draw are much stronger downstream. Very few turn and river cards help the overpair.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

I'm more likely to put more pressure on a drawing hand than a made one. Isn't there a case to be made for wanting to let them know I have an overapir and you'd better have the goods to be putting in raises on the big streets?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm more likely to put more pressure on a drawing hand than a made one. Isn't there a case to be made for wanting to let them know I have an overapir and you'd better have the goods to be putting in raises on the big streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose, but the problem lmd faces is that he's against hands, not a single hand. Since he is a long shot to improve, he's got to have a reasonable chance to be ahead and to stay ahead, with the later being the bigger problem.

The board contains both a straight and flush draw, and it's the type that hits limpers for sets. Skilled players such as mike l. can make it hellish for the overpair(s) when other scary cards come, and just about any card save a non flush queen will look scary to lmd. Also note that a limper called mike's bet, with a pre flop raiser sitting behind him. This is the type of spot people slowplay.

In a nutshell, the time to put on the heat is against fewer opponents and with a less coordinated board.

~ Rick

[Lawrence Ng]

This is a good post and it got me thinking, especially after reading Rick's comments.

I think QQ is too good a hand to pass up here on the flop given there is a good chance that both Mike L and the button could have overcards and draws. Unfortunatley for Davis he's really not going to know where he stands with his hand till the turn comes around since both players he is up against are going to pump that flop for either a big draw value or in the button's case to hopefully even buy a free card with his position.

If Davis is indeed ahead on the flop here, he probably won't be ahead by much because any A, K, diamond, straight card, pairing of the top card can potentially put Davis in a bind with queens.

Having played the way you did Davis, I would probably just call the flop raise and lead out on the turn if any non scare card comes.

However, if you are determined to play your queens aggressively, then bet no matter what card falls on the turn. You have to put the other two players to the test and checking is going to be brutal if Mike L and the button also check.

You have a good pot here with a good chance to win. While I think Rick has some merit stating that perhaps folding in a spot like this against these particular two players, I can't see how it's that big of a mistake to carry on and play your queens more aggressively once a good turn card falls in your favor.

Lawrence

[mike l.]

"Capper would seem to be almost guaranteed to bet a raggedy-ass flop. Would mike really want him to scare out others with a monster?"

first i elect to limp utg preflop, and then call to a 3 bet from a super solid player in a multiway pot.

there are i think two players between me and the cutoff capper. so i bet into all those players. as opposed to checking and then having cutoff bet, lmd c/r and then i 3 bet or call. also the c/o and lmd bb are the aggressive better players in the hand, and the limpers are weak and bad. can you read my hand here?

[ffredd]

[ QUOTE ]
"Capper would seem to be almost guaranteed to bet a raggedy-ass flop. Would mike really want him to scare out others with a monster?"

first i elect to limp utg preflop, and then call to a 3 bet from a super solid player in a multiway pot.

there are i think two players between me and the cutoff capper. so i bet into all those players. as opposed to checking and then having cutoff bet, lmd c/r and then i 3 bet or call. also the c/o and lmd bb are the aggressive better players in the hand, and the limpers are weak and bad. can you read my hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]
7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Maybe a flush draw with overcards: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Capper would seem to be almost guaranteed to bet a raggedy-ass flop. Would mike really want him to scare out others with a monster?"

first i elect to limp utg preflop, and then call to a 3 bet from a super solid player in a multiway pot.

there are i think two players between me and the cutoff capper. so i bet into all those players. as opposed to checking and then having cutoff bet, lmd c/r and then i 3 bet or call. also the c/o and lmd bb are the aggressive better players in the hand, and the limpers are weak and bad. can you read my hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]
7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Maybe a flush draw with overcards: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

mike folds KJs to MD's 3bet i think. i think he raises 77 preflop, so i say 44 or 55, each equally likely.