Too much? - A8s

shant · #1 07-17-2005, 09:31 PM

Fifth or eighth hand in so it's readless.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 6 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

ArturiusX · #2 07-17-2005, 09:38 PM

Preflops a bit loose to me, I assume you were playing at a rock garden or something and wanted to change it up a bit, which might be ok.

I like the rest.

sy_or_bust · #3 07-17-2005, 10:00 PM

I'm never ever raising this preflop without a full table read of extraordinary rocks. Why would you raise this?

The rest is very good.

shant · #4 07-17-2005, 10:03 PM

I open-raise ATs and A9s pretty much automatically, so I wasn't sure about this one, which is part of the reason I titled it that way. I guess it's not so good readless.

ArturiusX · #5 07-17-2005, 10:07 PM

Im actually leaning towards a call on the turn. I initially thought that we could fold out UTG+1 overpairs/cards (JJ/AK etc), but I think this is very unlikely. By raising we're also opening ourselves up to a big re-raise.

So maybe call folding the river UI?

sy_or_bust · #6 07-17-2005, 10:14 PM

Funny. I still think TT-QQ are often folding, and some players might drop KK too. The real question IMO is whether there is any chance Hero beats BB on the turn. Earlier I assumed so. But if this is untrue, I'm thinking this raise is a bad idea because a river ace will beat every hand UTG+1 might fold on the turn, and BB might even 3-bet a set.

So maybe just call??

Nick C · #7 07-17-2005, 10:25 PM

Disclaimer: I'm drawing from my 3/6 experiences, which may not apply so well to the 10/20.

I'm thinking that, unless BB has 66, 55 or 33, Hero is most likely in third place on the turn. There is the question, too, of what hand Hero is representing with the raise, given the previous action. I guess a set of 7's or JJ?

But if UTG+1 doesn't fold, that may be just as well, since I think we're probably drawing versus both him and the BB.

It's possible, too, that UTG+1 will pop it with his KK or whatnot if we don't but will just call if we raise first.

Getting UTG+1 to fold a better hand while BB calls with a worse one is absolutely terrific those times that it happens, but I'm thinking that scenario will be kind of rare.

So I think I like just calling the turn.

aK13 · #8 07-17-2005, 10:45 PM

1. Call -- If you call, UTG+1 is very likely to raise it behind you, costing you 1 more BB to get to the river.

2. Raise -- I doubt any sane player is 3betting again here unless he has the one combination of 88 that is left, costing you 1 more BB to get to the river as well.

Thus, I like raising here, as it will likely cost us the same to get to the river, but adds a chance (almost nonexistent, but possible) chance that player behind us folds a better hand, or lets us take a free showdown.

However, if you are called, do you value bet the river if it's checked to you?

Unless the turn comes back for 2 bets, I'm probably seeing a showdown.

mr pink · #9 07-17-2005, 10:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I still think TT-QQ are often folding, and some players might drop KK too.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree here. i think you'd be hard pressed to find a typical opponent who is able to fold an overpair in this spot. i'd guess QQ and KK are almost never folding, and JJ-TT are calling down like 90% of the time.

ropey · #10 07-17-2005, 10:52 PM

I can't believe what I'm reading...no doubt that your suggested play will improve your chances of winning...but that doesn't make it correct.

You have very little chance to win this pot. I think you should fold as soon as the BB bets into you on the turn.

-ropey