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  #1  
Old 12-09-2005, 02:35 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

I tended to disagree with the consensus from this post
BillyJex presents "Deep in a Party $109"

So I decided to run through some numbers.

Here is the quick situation. 12 players remaining (300/600 Blinds) Somewhat active CO raises to 2000.

We are in the SB with ATs. CO has 23K Behind, We have 13,512 after posting.

So, before thinking about how CEV relates to $EV in this situation, I wanted to see if it was in fact +CEV to push here.

OP mentioned that the CO had been opening 1.5-2x per orbit.

Let's do some math...

Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

CEV CALCULATION
77% of the time, CO will fold
Our stack size will be
13,512 + 900 (blinds) + 2,000 (his bet) = 16,412

23% of the time, CO will call
Our stack size will be
29,624 (total pot) * .3321 (our equity vs range) = 9,834

So, our expected stack size is = (.77) x 16,412 + (.23) x 9,834 = 14,900

That is an EV of +2.5BB. But it got me thinking. Our equity vs his range doesnt really come into play much here (it only matters 23% of the time). It turns out, given the assumptions I have made. It is impossible to have a hand that makes this play -CEV.

We would need under 20% equity to have a negative EV for this push. No hand has <20% equity vs this range.

So...what does this mean???

well, for one. In a play like a resteal (which this isnt really a resteal, just plays like one), your read is much more important than your cards MUCH more important.

This is a few examples of how EV changes with your cards

ATs AA A6 76s 82o 32o
equity 33.2% 84.6% 26.5% 31.4% 0.228 .244
% raising 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.25 0.25
EV 1374 4907 916 1250 659 769

Taking out hands that are actually big favorites vs the range that will call (AA-KK), there is only a 1BB difference between any hand you can hold, and they are all +EV.

On the other hand, if you do have ATs, the estimate for how many pots the CO will open in this spot is very important

equity 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32%
% raising 50% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
EV 2096 1895 1751 1560 1292 890 220


If we are wrong, and the CO has only been opening 1x per 6 hands, this is a pretty much EV neurtral push, whereas, if he is opening 2x per 6 hands, we have +2BB EV.

It just shows, that we really need to concentrate on our table. Yes, having ATs in the SB buys you a little wiggle room as far as pushing back at a late position raiser. But we are much better off if we know that he will open X% of pots here, and fold to a push.


***BTW, I think CEV and $EV Diverge a great deal here, and even if we sure of his opening and calling range, I am not convinced this a good push from a $$ perspective.
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  #2  
Old 12-09-2005, 03:06 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

I pretty much agree with all of your CEV calcs here. What that said, did you use Pokerstove to figure out what percentage of total hands that range was? If so, Pokerstove will not take into consideration what the hero had. So they'll count 4 Aces and 4 Tens even though the hero has AT. Of course that will just make it more +CEV since the hero is less likely to be dominated with AK-AJ and AA.

I'm not sure how much $EV and CEV diverge here. There normally isn't a huge bump from 11th to 10th. If there was, then divergence plays a pretty big roll. But my gut feeling is that they'll be about the same. Of course much of that depends on the stack sizes of the field.
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Old 12-09-2005, 03:21 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

I calculated the % of hands in a spreadsheet, I only included 3 combos of AA, TT, and 12 of AK, etc.

Do you really think taking any CEV + line here is the right way to maximize your expected $$ won? Maybe it is just a personal strength type of thing. My max $EV line (for the MTT as a whole from this point) is definitely winning as high a % of pots as possible rather than the most chips in each hand. I am treating it very much like a SNG from here on out.
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  #4  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:12 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???


[ QUOTE ]
***BTW, I think CEV and $EV Diverge a great deal here, and even if we sure of his opening and calling range, I am not convinced this a good push from a $$ perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
That is an EV of +2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

this is increasing our stack by ~11% in expecation. i would pass up a gamble that's known to be slightly +cEV, but this is way too much to pass on, imo.

also consider what happens if we have mis-guessed his calling range (assuming we still have ATs). say that our guess was

too tight so he's calling with some more hands. so instead of 88+ / AJ+ he's now calling with 55+ / A8+ / KJ+. i don't have pokerstove to do the fancy analysis, but you love getting getting called by A8/A9, you're a little unhappy about 55-77/AT, and you're about indifferent about KJ+. so you're a little happier if his range is a little looser than AJ+/88+.

too loose say he calls only with AQ+ / TT+. that's obviously huge for us - we really don't want to get called by 88/99/AJ.

so we're at +2.5 bb with AJ+/88+, and it's going to be a little better if he's looser and way better if he's tighter. so +2.5 bb is really a worst case, as long as we're right about his raise % (and his calling range isn't something bizarre like 22+, AT+).
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  #5  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:14 PM
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

Why in this situation or in a SNG (or at any time) is it more +$EV to win a higher % of pots than extracting the most chips in a given situation. My initial thought on this is to always play to win the most chips anytime I am involved, regardless of situation, although I have no statistical explanation for it.

By the way, I'd rather eat glass than have to play at the same table as this A_Plus guy.
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  #6  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:23 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

You are very right about the hand ranges. I think some players may be tighter than 88/AJ, but I think the size of our stack severely limits how loose of a call we are going to see. In the final 12 of a 100$ MTT, I just dont expect to see A9 calling a 22xBB push here.

My point is with this a stack this large, you really limit the hands that are willing to call. When you do that, the cards in your hand arent as important.

Since the cards arent that important, do we make this push with 76s? The CEV isnt far from ATs?

Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?
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Old 12-09-2005, 04:36 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

Whether we push with any two obviously gets back to hand ranges. While with AT, I agree that whether tighter or looser than the current assumptions the outcome is at least equal to if not more favorable then originally calculated. But pushing with 76s against a looser calling range has to be bad. But basically I agree with what you're saying. Based on your original assumptions it doesn't make a difference if you push with 76s or AT. How well you read players will determine whether or not that's a +EV play.

In practice, I'd have a hard time re-stealing with 76s. That might be a wrong move but damn I'd hate to bust out doing it and it seems like everytime I try something like this I get caught. It's not my strong suit. I'm better at picking the right time to be an initial aggressor versus fighting back against people. It's an area I need to personally improve in and your point is exactly why it's important.
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  #8  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:46 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[ QUOTE ]
Why in this situation or in a SNG (or at any time) is it more +$EV to win a higher % of pots than extracting the most chips in a given situation. My initial thought on this is to always play to win the most chips anytime I am involved, regardless of situation, although I have no statistical explanation for it.

By the way, I'd rather eat glass than have to play at the same table as this A_Plus guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Early on in a MTT I never consider survival as having any value. The closer I get to a pay increase, the more valuable survival becomes.

For instance, in a SNG if someone shows me AK with 6 players remaining and pushes. I will fold 55 if we both have 22xBB. I just passed up chips. But for me. Having 22xBB with 6 players remaining is more valuable than having 45.5xBB with 5 players remaining 55% of the time, and being busted 45% of the time.

Think of it as two different tournaments. Would you rather play 100 6 person SNGs with 22xBB. Or play 55 SNGS with 44.5xBB.

Normally in a MTT (at the begining), I am indifferent between playing 100 MTTs with 100xBB, or playing 50 MTTs with 200xBB. Make it 55 MTTs with 200xBB and I take it every time.

Later on in a MTT (or in a SNG) is where I think survival has value. I want to be able to win pots uncontested (which is why having a big stack is so valuable).

From the original post.

If you gave me the choice.
100, 12 person SNGs where I start with 22xBB
or
77 SNGs with 27xBB + 8 SNGs with 45.5xBB.

I think I would earn more money with option #1. This may be dependent on individual skills. I have played 1000s of SNGs, so I am very comfortable playing short stack survival poker until we are down to 3-4 players.

I agree with Schwza that 2.5xBB is a lot of chips to be passing up, but I am not 100% sure taking it is best. I guess I am trying to consolidate why I would pass in a SNG, but take it here??
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  #9  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:47 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[ QUOTE ]
Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.
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  #10  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:49 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[ QUOTE ]
Whether we push with any two obviously gets back to hand ranges. While with AT, I agree that whether tighter or looser than the current assumptions the outcome is at least equal to if not more favorable then originally calculated. But pushing with 76s against a looser calling range has to be bad. But basically I agree with what you're saying. Based on your original assumptions it doesn't make a difference if you push with 76s or AT. How well you read players will determine whether or not that's a +EV play.

In practice, I'd have a hard time re-stealing with 76s. That might be a wrong move but damn I'd hate to bust out doing it and it seems like everytime I try something like this I get caught. It's not my strong suit. I'm better at picking the right time to be an initial aggressor versus fighting back against people. It's an area I need to personally improve in and your point is exactly why it's important.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are very right about the hand ranges. If I adjust them at all, AT pulls ahead immediately.

Do you agree that with 22xBB, that we are MUCH more likely to see a tighter range than a looser one, and that A9 isnt a reasonable assumption. (possible, but very unlikely, especially with a TAG Hero)
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