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View Poll Results: 5 vs 12
Steve Lyons 29 29.29%
Stu Scott 70 70.71%
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  #51  
Old 11-17-2005, 05:12 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say I am given one of these choices:

Choice A:
20% of the time, win nothing
60% of the time, win $2
20% of the time, win $5
(EV $2.20)



[/ QUOTE ]

Dunno if this was supposed to eb a specific example or not, but if it was, then these percentages are off by quite a bit.
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  #52  
Old 11-17-2005, 05:34 PM
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

Yeah I know the percentages don't match those in this hand, just trying to show why I wouldn't make the decision just based on EV.
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  #53  
Old 11-17-2005, 05:46 PM
rbenuck4 rbenuck4 is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

A lot of people are talking about maximizing eliminating Barch, and others are talknig about maximizing winning the tournament. Most aren't realizing that you should try to maximize both. The best way to do this, in my opinion, is to flat call preflop, with the intention of betting the flop if it is benign.

I think the hand range for Dannenman is pretty good. He either has a pocket pair or two high cards. In the case where he has two high cards, you want him in preflop so that if a bunch of overcards hits, he will win versus the range of hands that Barch has. Your hand (JJ), while very good, is vulnerable once the flop hits. The chances of an overcard coming out are well over 50% (i think the real number is close to 60% but i'm not positive). You want Dannenman in to catch those flops to maximize Barch getting eliminated. once the flop comes 10 high and its checked to you, i think its very important at this point to bet to maximize your chances of winning this pot. Your JJ hand is now much stronger than it was preflop, now that you have an overpair and the chances of an overcard coming are greatly reduced, so you have to take the lead and get Dannenman out of the hand.

I think one of the key situations you were hoping for preflop was that Dannenman had a dominating hand over Barch (like AQ or AK). Now that you feel that this flop didn't help Dannenman or Barch, you need to get him out of the hand so you can maximize your chances of winning the hand. You don't want to see a Q or K on the turn, and you especially don't want to see an ace, and you can't let Dannenman see that turn card (or river card for that matter) for free.
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  #54  
Old 11-17-2005, 06:14 PM
Huskiez Huskiez is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[ QUOTE ]
Only nitpicks would be -- 1) I think Barch was probably a significantly tougher competitor for Hachem than Danneman was -- meaning the value in eliminating him makes his equity significantly stronger in those scenarios, and 2) for most people, the utility value of money goes up more at lower amounts, meaning that the difference in value to Hachem between 5 million and 2.5 million is likely to be more than the value between 7.5 million and 5 million, to use a simplified example.

Also, its very possibly that he was able to narrow either Danneman's or Barch's range down further here based on tells or the way they were playing, and as such be able to make a better decision once the flop came.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good points.

The reason I made the thread was not really this exact situation per say, but more so because if I was faced with a similar situation, I wanted to know what to do. I tried not to factor in player ability in my analysis but your point is valid. Barch being a better player than Dannenmann makes a softplay more correct.

Also it's true that $EV does not equate with EU, which would make a softplay more appealing. One thing to keep in mind is that first prize also comes with the bracelet. Aggressive play would increase the chances of placing first and winning the bracelet, as well as placing third.
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  #55  
Old 11-17-2005, 06:17 PM
Huskiez Huskiez is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[ QUOTE ]
Well...apparnatly Barch's range is much more, since the move was made with A6o...So....

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it A6o? I thought it was As6s but I could be wrong.

If Barch's hand range is wider, that would make it more correct to play aggressively because Hachem's hand is more dominant against Barch's hand range, and softplay minimizes the chances of the best hand winning.
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  #56  
Old 11-17-2005, 06:25 PM
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

You say JJ is vulnerable. Well, even AA isn't gonna win every time. Would you bet that? What is the purpose of betting? To make sure that only you or Barch wins the pot? What if you bet and are called? Do you want a side pot?

I really think you all are underestimating Barch as a player. If I check down and discover that Dannenman outdrew me and so going heads-up it's say, 40 mil to 25mil, am I really worried that I won't be able to come back and beat him? If Barch outdrew me, then I have a really tough player with a bunch of chips to play with. Not to even mention moving up in the money by 2 mil in REAL money if EITHER I or Dannenman beat Barch's hand.

Conclusion: Barch has to go. If Dannenman takes the pot, I still feel like the favorite heads-up. If I win the pot, I have a very nice cushion is Dannenman gets a little lucky. If Barch beats out both of us, well, that's poker.

Admittedly, I first thought Hachem's play was WAAAAYYYY wrong, but after reviewing the circumstances, it was by far the best play.

-Gross
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  #57  
Old 12-01-2005, 12:21 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: Observations

I was wrong about Dannenmann not wanting to work another day in his life.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker...amp;id=2239158
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  #58  
Old 12-01-2005, 12:41 PM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[ QUOTE ]
+EV and -EV are useful over the LONG RUN. In this case, THERE IS NO LONG RUN at the final table of the WSOP!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a demonstration of extremely confused thinking. If you think "+EV and -EV" are "not useful here", since there is no "long run" at the FT of the WSOP, you have no idea what EV means.
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  #59  
Old 12-01-2005, 02:59 PM
PFrese PFrese is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

I may not have the bext understanding of -EV and +EV, but I did read a post yesterday that summed up what I was trying to say. It essentially said --

If we bet on a coin toss, and you agreed to pay me $100,000 for each time it came up heads and I paid you $102,000 for each time it came up tails that would be slighting +EV for you. You would happily take the wager as it is +EV for you.

Now, what if I told you we would only flip the coin ONCE? Would you still take the bet?
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  #60  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:15 PM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Default Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[ QUOTE ]
I may not have the bext understanding of -EV and +EV, but I did read a post yesterday that summed up what I was trying to say. It essentially said --

If we bet on a coin toss, and you agreed to pay me $100,000 for each time it came up heads and I paid you $102,000 for each time it came up tails that would be slighting +EV for you. You would happily take the wager as it is +EV for you.

Now, what if I told you we would only flip the coin ONCE? Would you still take the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer has to do with the size of my bankroll, and the risks I'm willing to take as a gambler, when facing a clear +EV decision.

The answer has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that there will only be "one coin flip" in this _particular_ game.
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