How many must be in to view a cold raise with small pairs?

[SimonVlc]

In a full 10 persons table? And with AXs?

Thank you!

[Turning Stone Pro]

if 3 ahead of me are in (2 cold-called the raise), then I call with all pairs.

Axs? muck everytime, unless re-raising a LP steal-raiser.

TSP

[W. Deranged]

A couple of things:

1. I try to keep Axs to only unraised pots, preferably in late positions behind several limpers. It's really not worth playing if there isn't any chance you'll be good if an ace flops (which a raised pot will often indicate).

2. I'd be a little wary of playing the smallest pairs (22-55, say) in unraised pots, ever, unless the action is ridiculous (four cold-callers in front or something like that). Those are the hands that account for the huge majority of set-over-sets, and they have almost zero chance of winning without a set. The mid-pairs are less likely to be oversetted and also gain a little edge from holding up a few more times and from connecting on straights occassionally (the lower pairs make fewer straights and are more susceptible to over-straights as well).

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
2. I'd be a little wary of playing the smallest pairs (22-55, say) in unraised pots, ever, unless the action is ridiculous (four cold-callers in front or something like that). Those are the hands that account for the huge majority of set-over-sets, and they have almost zero chance of winning without a set. The mid-pairs are less likely to be oversetted and also gain a little edge from holding up a few more times and from connecting on straights occassionally (the lower pairs make fewer straights and are more susceptible to over-straights as well).

[/ QUOTE ]

you made a good point with the first point and then said the above.

this is wrong imo. you can't play in fear of set over set. how often does it occur?

there are C(48,3) (Assuming we know both players hands) flops=17,296. the number flops that can come of the x-y-z variety if we assume player A has a pair of rank x and player b has a pair of rank y is 176 because there are 2 choices for each of the cards rank x and y and there are 44 choices for the remaining card. divide that by the total # of flops and we get 1.02% or approximately 1/98 or 97:1 against.

are you really going to not play an UBER profitable hand in a raised multiway pot (22 for instance) because you fear that about 1% probability...i sure dont worry about it.

when i win with those sets its a lot of money. when i lose set over set i go down for a lot of money, but as you can see the former is vastly more likely than the latter.

-Barron

[highland]

the percentage of time you get flopped set over set against isn't misleading, since you're folding your 22 post-flop almost all the time. What matters is the percentage you _do_ flop your set _and_ somebody gets a better set. If you do flop your set, the chance that if just one of your opponents has a PP, he flopped a set as well is much higher than 1%. 1 - (43/45 * 42/44) = 8.8%. About double that if you're up against 2 opponents with pairs, which doesn't seem that unlikely.

cheers,
highland

[SittingBull]

in Omaha,but not in hold'en.
The mathematics against set over set is very high.
HappyPokering [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull

[TimM]

Don't forget that the guy with the big pair gets 5 cards to make his set vs. the small pair's 3.

[W. Deranged]

Barron,

I think you are right about the likelihood of set over set, and I hardly meant that to be my only consideration. I just wonder if, considering the fact that the raise cuts down your implied odds, you need a lot of flop help to win, and there are these couple of extra added disadvantages to the smaller pairs (including the set-over-set consideration... which might not even be enough to worry about), these small pairs are not particularly profitable.

I have always felt that I played pocket pairs way too loosely, and was reevaluating my play. If, as Barron claims, all these pairs CAN be played for big profit behind a raise and two cold-callers, then I'll play them that way. Another question, of course, is whether this applies to every pair, of if there is a "cutoff" (probably somewhere between 33 and 66).

Point taken.

[A_C_Slater]

One raise (2 SB's) 2 cold callers (4 SB's). At this point there is 6 SB's in the pot. You are 7.5 to 1 to flop a set or better with your small pocket pairs 22-55. The BB and SB are also there making it 7.25 SB's. Implied odds can take care of the remaining .25 SB. Likewise, if two limp in and then there is a raise you can still call because you're expecting the limpers to call the raise when it gets back to them. Also, in low limit games the blinds almost always defend with any 2, especially the BB. So you really are getting about 10 to 1 on average if you call after three are already in.


With AXs you will flop a flush draw 8 to 1, so I would want a raiser and 3 cold callers as opposed to only 2, since you won't be flopping a made hand and need better odds preflop to make the call worth it if you hit.

[stoxtrader]

you are getting 7.5:2 NOT 7.5:1 if you are calling a raise.