outs to non-nut hands

[cheapsuit]

lately i have been spending alot of time thinking about times i called at the limit tables i play hoping to pick up what are essentially drawing hands that still would not give me the nuts. by this i mean hands that are either drawing to the bottom part of straights, low-flushes (although these generally win anyway and so i won't talk about these) and even making something like two-pair or trips by the turn or flop.

a good example would be a hand i recently played on the big blind. i had 97o, there were three limpers, sb completed and i check. the flop comes something like KT7r, giving me bottom pair, and backdoor straight draw...so this is a pretty mediocre/awful hand. sb and i check, player to my immediate left bets, everyone (including sb) calls so there is now something like 9 small bets in the pot. essentially i have 5 "outs" to what i consider to be weak drawing hands (the two 7s and two 9s) and an 8 would give me an oesd. lately, i have been calling with these hands thinking that i am getting proper odds-- i have 5 outs, 47 cards unseen and getting 9:1 odds with the bonus of the 8 giving me the oes.

but there are huge huge problems with holdings like these. for one, i could easily be dominated and essentially drawing dead, i could make my two pair and then the board could pair either counterfeiting my two-pair, giving trips to another player, or giving someone Kings up or something similar, and a card like a 8 or a J could make someone their straight and i would only now be drawing to a split. ultimately, i have given up on hands like these if anyone shows the least bit of aggression. and if no one shows aggression i will usually just check it down anyway.

If i was holding onto something like A7s then its something of a different story because my hand cant be dominated and i most likley will have a backdoor flush to go along with my bottom pair and overcard (but i think hands like these are a whole other topic). so long story short, i have mostly given up on hands like these and i think it has saved me money and decreased the overall variance of my swings, which is a positive thing in my opinion. however, id still like to hear some feedback or thoughts (mostly pertaining to how anyone counts their outs with hands like these [half-outs, partial-outs, etc] given all the negative aspects that still accompany this holding even if you do "make" your hand) from anyone who has given any thought of these type of "weak drawing hands". thanks alot.

--cheap

[JPNet]

If you look at Ed Millers book, SSH, he has a good discussion of this topic. Counting outs. Basically, for something like outs to a pair, or 2nd pair where you think you may make your hand and lose, you discount the outs. I believe he uses an example of AK, 6 out to improve, but you need to discount those 6 outs to about 1.5 outs per, so 3 outs instead of 6. A backdoor flush is worth about 1.5, and a backdoor straight 1 - 1.5.

[cheapsuit]

yes, i acutally have read ed millers book and this is what got me thinking about the topic to begin with. i suppose i just wanted a more specific way of counting outs, something down to the tenth instead of just halfs or whatnot, and also wanted to know if there are any sure-tell ways to figuring you are dominated or still drawing clear. also, i was looking for some examples possibly where people have played these hands successfully (not necessarily winning, but just playing them with a positive expectation). i suppose the rule of thumb though with these weak type of drawing hands is to only go for them when the pot is laying you astronomical odds and you would be losing money by folding.

thanks alot for your input.

[JPNet]

I don't think that counting outs down to tenths, or even halfs, would be useful. You want to get a good idea of the strength of your hand, and by adding individual draws worth 1.5 outs for instance, you can add up your partial outs, arrive at a total and calculate your odds. If you end up with a total of x.5, the .5 is not particularly useful.

For instance, if you have 5 outs, and have seen the flop, you are a 42:5 or 8.4:1 dog. If you have 5.5 outs, you are a 42:5.5 or 7.636363, repeating, dog. Both can be rounded off to 8:1. Remember that you arrived at these numbers to begin with as estimates, not exact calculations, as in I think my backdoor flush is worth about 1.5 outs.

look at the pot odds, and implied odds and make a decision. Note that the decision is also affected by the board, so, if the board is very dangerous, you think it is quite likely that you could hit your outs and lose, and the odds are very close, the pot is small, or both, you may want to fold.

Also, you are guessing to a large extent what your opponents have, so you have a guess as to the strengths of your opponents hands, an estimate of the strength of your hand, and some assumptions about the likelyhood that you will win if you make your hand, not a good time to be worried about decimal places.

[cheapsuit]

good points. youre totally right about how getting caught up with such specific calculations can mess a player up. thanks alot.

about the implied odds though. with these hands, it is very likely to make something like a bottom straight or trips and still lose, but you would be putting a couple of those extra bets in as your implied odds. in reality though, those extra bets would be in your opponents favor and have to be counted as reverse implied odds. yet another reason why these hands are a little dangerous. just thought id make the point. thanks again.