#1
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Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
note: authored by "izverg" on the BW forums
Definitions and assumptions: -------------------------------------------------- D=deposit (doesn't enter in this discussion) B=bonus X=your target (you aim for $X total or $0=bust) BR=your whole gambling bankroll Bets have no house advantage (good approximation for Playtech with BJ switch) X is the function of 1)size of the bonus B 2)your risk tolerance which should be determined by your bankroll X does not depend on D. Since there is no house advantage, for any X, you can extract more EV out of the bonus. Let's say you've reached a value of X, and you set your goal to reach X+dX or bust trying. Simple calculation shows that for this bet: EV=B/X * dX SD=(X-B)/sqrt(X) * sqrt(dX) EV decreases with X, and SD grows with X -- obvious results. Your bankroll limits the max Var/EV=SD^2/EV of the bets that you are making. When you get to X, you should continue if your bankroll can support bets of Var/EV = (X-B)^2/B Using arguments similar to the ones justifying 300BB bankroll requirement in poker, my personal criterion for bankroll is: (I am conservative when it comes to bankroll) BR = 4*Var/EV I think this is equivalent to requiring ~500BB bankroll for limit hold'em. Finally, target X of the sticky bonus B is determined by solving the following equation: BR = 4*(X-B)^2/B When I reach X, I reach the risk threshold that my bankroll allows. Time to cashout. X = B + sqrt(BR*B)/2 Some examples: ------------------------ Bonus=200 BR=5,000: X=700 BR=10,000: X=900 BR=20,000: X=1200 |
#2
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Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
I did quite a bit of casino bonus whoring, but I never got around to doing the sticky bonuses. They were a little too risky for my bankroll at first and then I procrastinated. Now apparantly many of the casinos you could whore don't let you play blackjack anymore. Still, Izverg over at bonuswhores seems like a very intelligent poster.
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#3
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Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
[ QUOTE ]
I did quite a bit of casino bonus whoring, but I never got around to doing the sticky bonuses. They were a little too risky for my bankroll at first and then I procrastinated. Now apparantly many of the casinos you could whore don't let you play blackjack anymore. Still, Izverg over at bonuswhores seems like a very intelligent poster. [/ QUOTE ] Sticky's are in fact profitable-Especially at blackjack switch. You just need the BR for them. |
#4
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Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
i personally recommend stickies. They definately are +EV
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#5
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Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
Wow I thought with the playtech stickies you depositied $100 got the $200 and bet $300 on yourfirst hand. If you win,clear the WR and cash out, if you lose your out a $100. Its been a while so I guess things changed.
So If my casino whoring BR is $1000, my target goal is $428. Playing BJ Switch what is the bestt approach to reach that goal. What approach do I take if I reach that goal before meeting the WR? I want to go back and hit some of these, like the Carnival one, but I am not sure of the best approach. Any guidance is appreciated. |
#6
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Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal
[ QUOTE ]
So If my casino whoring BR is $1000, my target goal is $428. Playing BJ Switch what is the bestt approach to reach that goal. What approach do I take if I reach that goal before meeting the WR? [/ QUOTE ] note: authored by Izverg As an example, let's evaluate a 50% reload offer that USA casino likes to send out (one of the worst spammers out there): Offer: 300/150/3600 deposit/bonus/wr On a $10K bankroll I set the target at 150+sqrt(10,000*150)/2 = $760. I start with $450, so probability of bust is 1-450/760=0.4, and EV=$150*0.4=$60. The wagering requirements are still almost irrelevant for EV ($3600*0.0005=$2). In general, EV=1-(B+D)/X. I am going to play blackjack switch, and I need to get from $450 to $760. I don't want to ever overshoot my target, because then I am taking more risk than I decided to take. So no big bets for me at the start. I start betting maybe $15 on each hand, and increase or even decrease the bet size as the situation changes. If, for example, I have only $1000 of WR left, and I am at $300, I will at this point be betting $60 on each hand (I never bet more than 1/5 on each hand in BJ switch). If I have $30 left, I usually head to the Video Poker and try to win and double/double/double (hasn't worked ever yet). To finish this story, I never take this deal, because the EV is too low for the time it will take me to play it, and it is borderline as far as the risk/reward is concerned. 100% stickies are usually ok though. edit: I believe Izverg's EV was miscalculated |
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