Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal

[Reef]

note: authored by "izverg" on the BW forums

Definitions and assumptions:
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D=deposit (doesn't enter in this discussion)
B=bonus
X=your target (you aim for $X total or $0=bust)
BR=your whole gambling bankroll
Bets have no house advantage (good approximation for Playtech with BJ switch)

X is the function of
1)size of the bonus B
2)your risk tolerance which should be determined by your bankroll

X does not depend on D.

Since there is no house advantage, for any X, you can extract more EV out of the bonus. Let's say you've reached a value of X, and you set your goal to reach X+dX or bust trying. Simple calculation shows that for this bet:

EV=B/X * dX
SD=(X-B)/sqrt(X) * sqrt(dX)

EV decreases with X, and SD grows with X -- obvious results.

Your bankroll limits the max Var/EV=SD^2/EV of the bets that you are making. When you get to X, you should continue if your bankroll can support bets of

Var/EV = (X-B)^2/B

Using arguments similar to the ones justifying 300BB bankroll requirement in poker, my personal criterion for bankroll is: (I am conservative when it comes to bankroll)

BR = 4*Var/EV

I think this is equivalent to requiring ~500BB bankroll for limit hold'em.

Finally, target X of the sticky bonus B is determined by solving the following equation:

BR = 4*(X-B)^2/B

When I reach X, I reach the risk threshold that my bankroll allows. Time to cashout.

X = B + sqrt(BR*B)/2

Some examples:
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Bonus=200
BR=5,000: X=700
BR=10,000: X=900
BR=20,000: X=1200

[plj8624]

I did quite a bit of casino bonus whoring, but I never got around to doing the sticky bonuses. They were a little too risky for my bankroll at first and then I procrastinated. Now apparantly many of the casinos you could whore don't let you play blackjack anymore. Still, Izverg over at bonuswhores seems like a very intelligent poster.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I did quite a bit of casino bonus whoring, but I never got around to doing the sticky bonuses. They were a little too risky for my bankroll at first and then I procrastinated. Now apparantly many of the casinos you could whore don't let you play blackjack anymore. Still, Izverg over at bonuswhores seems like a very intelligent poster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sticky's are in fact profitable-Especially at blackjack switch. You just need the BR for them.

[pointcount]

i personally recommend stickies. They definately are +EV

[I Play 2 Ski]

Wow I thought with the playtech stickies you depositied $100 got the $200 and bet $300 on yourfirst hand. If you win,clear the WR and cash out, if you lose your out a $100. Its been a while so I guess things changed.

So If my casino whoring BR is $1000, my target goal is $428. Playing BJ Switch what is the bestt approach to reach that goal. What approach do I take if I reach that goal before meeting the WR?

I want to go back and hit some of these, like the Carnival one, but I am not sure of the best approach. Any guidance is appreciated.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]


So If my casino whoring BR is $1000, my target goal is $428. Playing BJ Switch what is the bestt approach to reach that goal. What approach do I take if I reach that goal before meeting the WR?

[/ QUOTE ]

note: authored by Izverg
As an example, let's evaluate a 50% reload offer that USA casino likes to send out (one of the worst spammers out there):

Offer: 300/150/3600 deposit/bonus/wr

On a $10K bankroll I set the target at 150+sqrt(10,000*150)/2 = $760.

I start with $450, so probability of bust is 1-450/760=0.4, and EV=$150*0.4=$60. The wagering requirements are still almost irrelevant for EV ($3600*0.0005=$2).

In general, EV=1-(B+D)/X.

I am going to play blackjack switch, and I need to get from $450 to $760. I don't want to ever overshoot my target, because then I am taking more risk than I decided to take. So no big bets for me at the start. I start betting maybe $15 on each hand, and increase or even decrease the bet size as the situation changes. If, for example, I have only $1000 of WR left, and I am at $300, I will at this point be betting $60 on each hand (I never bet more than 1/5 on each hand in BJ switch).

If I have $30 left, I usually head to the Video Poker and try to win and double/double/double (hasn't worked ever yet).

To finish this story, I never take this deal, because the EV is too low for the time it will take me to play it, and it is borderline as far as the risk/reward is concerned. 100% stickies are usually ok though.

edit: I believe Izverg's EV was miscalculated