My bust hand from Sunday's PokerStars $500K guaranteed

[DonT77]

Given villain's table image (which he could now be using to his advantage) and his chip stack, I put his ROHs here at any 2 cards since this could easily be a raise-steal; because after all - who wants to take on the big stack?

I push (and bust) here too.

[West]

Harrington's Zones are based on the total pot, not the BB. With blinds 200/400 and antes 25, there should at least be 800 in the pot. That means he is actually in the Orange Zone.

Unless you have some kind of amazing read that the raiser has a monster, this is really a situation where everything about it green lights a push.

[ QUOTE ]

Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Under normal circumstances I think a push is fully in line. The only apprehension I have about a push is I never like getting involved with a guy who's clearly rushing with a hand like AQ. I understand that means he's more willing to call with hands like 66 or maybe even KQ, but it seems in these cases, he's just as likely to have the goods.

Sometimes you just gotta wait for the guy to cool off before you get involved.

[prayformojo]

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances I think a push is fully in line. The only apprehension I have about a push is I never like getting involved with a guy who's clearly rushing with a hand like AQ. I understand that means he's more willing to call with hands like 66 or maybe even KQ, but it seems in these cases, he's just as likely to have the goods.

Sometimes you just gotta wait for the guy to cool off before you get involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read through this a couple of times, and I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt but it's not easy. Are you actually suggesting that it's more likely he has a solid hand right now because he's "rushing"? I hope you aren't, but if you are, you are being a very silly person indeed. The cards don't have memory.

As others have pointed out in this thread, his recent success makes the range of hands he would both raise and call a push with quite broad. The principal consideration here is the range of hands he would play this way. We can attempt to infer that range of hands from his recent play. We cannot infer the quality of his actual holding based on the quality of cards he has recently been dealt.

[TWINUNO]

So what did you end up losing on after all the discusion?

[ QUOTE ]
Are you actually suggesting that it's more likely he has a solid hand right now because he's "rushing"? I hope you aren't, but if you are, you are being a very silly person indeed. The cards don't have memory.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not suggesting that the fact that he has recently had a good run of cards somehow indicates that he must also have a very good hand this time as well.

I'm suggesting that I prefer to stay out of the way of the guy who has gone from the felt to top 5 in what the OP implies was a short period of time. Rushes happen. I like having them, I like staying away from those who seem unable to do wrong for a period of time.

That doesn't mean I'm saying it's a definite fold. I'm just saying that in addition to the other information the fact that he's running good MUST be taken into consideration, just as you would likely try to get involved more often with someone who is running bad.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 100% with MLG here, which is generally a good place to be.

We may be giving away the store by revealing this, but a major way you accumulate chips in these tournaments is by picking off loose open-raises. Yes, if you play like this, you have to accept that occasionally the guy will flip over AA and you'll feel like a total donk, but it's still the correct play based on his range of hands.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
I am starting to believe that Aggressive really is synonomous with Getting Lucky

[/ QUOTE ]
Nah. Winning (in) MTTs is synonomous with Getting Lucky. Aggresive (in a winning variation) is synonomous with Choosing your Battles.

Building a solid stack earlier rather than later - no matter how you play you'll have to get lucky & win your conflips (and probably even win a couple of hands as a substantial underdog), but if you have a big stack around the bubble or around the final table bubble you will not bust even if you lose one or two hands. You increase your chances of a big payday by pushing your edges early on, even if they (the edges) are small.

[ QUOTE ]
[...] there is absolutely no reason to push against a raise with a hand that is easily dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is (only) dominated by AA, KK, QQ and AK. There's no way you can put the raisor on one of these hands with a probability that justifies a term like "easily".

To me as well this hand is a no-brainer: Push.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[JC_Saves]

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are completely ignoring the stack size implications and the read the OP has on the PFR, both of which are the determining factors on what you want to do here.

Stack sizes make a PF call horrible as you have no wiggle room on the flop, which you will miss 2/3 of the time and if you hit an A or Q, you won't be sure if they're good, not to mention that a PF call gives nice odds to everyone behind to call......

Regards,
Woodguy