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  #11  
Old 11-11-2004, 02:42 AM
Cooker Cooker is offline
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Default Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?

I said the raise was probably (not definitely) the correct play. I think it is a very nice semibluff. He probably thinks everyone is very weak since no one bet the flop, and he has just picked up the nut flush draw. Your bet doesn't mean anything, because you could easily be bluffing since it was checked around, but his raise might fold people because it shows some strength, which could be a lot of possible hands. Since both of you are already in for one bet, the fold equity probably isn't very good, but the best hand folded, so what more could he want?

You are only defending the calling stations play because he won one hand. If you don't fold, he looks like a bad player for calling 2 big bets with just fourth pair. Considering the merits of his play because he won one hand is just too results oriented. I don't think he wins this hand more often than he makes 2 pair or trips on the end unless top pair makes a big mistake. I feel like SB made 1 huge mistake, MP2 played just fine, and the button made several mistakes that ended up lucking him into winning one hand.
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  #12  
Old 11-11-2004, 10:32 AM
jeffnc jeffnc is offline
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Default Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?

[ QUOTE ]
You are only defending the calling stations play because he won one hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, that wasn't the point I was interested in. The point I was interested in was that aggressive play can cause players to make mistakes, but that doesn't necessarily mean the aggressor will benefit from it. And that means that making other players make mistakes isn't automatically the right thing to do, although poker theory as some of us have read it might imply that it is. You don't want other players to make mistakes unless they benefit you. That's what I find interesting vis a vis poker theory.

In this particular example, I just have a hard time believing that MP2 is going to get both players to fold on a bluff often enough to make it worthwhile. But maybe I'm wrong. It seems kind of late for a semi-bluff to be very effective, especially against a player that MP2 has observed to call down with any piece of the pot.
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  #13  
Old 11-11-2004, 12:33 PM
napawino napawino is offline
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Default Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?

I think the point you're missing is that the aggressor DID benefit from his aggression. He eliminated the person with the best hand, increased his outs, & put himself heads-up with a fairly predictable calling station. (Assuming as you said that UTG+1 is "a player that MP2 has observed to call down with any piece of the pot.")

Those are all good things. Not only that, he HAS to think that he has 9 outs to the nuts, so building the pot isn't bad. Plus, there's a good chance SB was bluffing & he picks up the pot right there.

I don't see how this is somehow a breakdown in the FTOP, but I do agree that you want people to make mistakes that help you. A more interesting thread on this topic might be centered on influencing others perceptions of you or something similar, but you're right - mistakes that other players make can easily hurt you if you don't know that they are making mistakes & can't take advantage of them.

IMHO
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  #14  
Old 11-11-2004, 03:11 PM
Cooker Cooker is offline
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Default Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?

I called UTG+1 the button in my posts because I misread the initial post slightly. I don't think anything I said changes significantly though.
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  #15  
Old 11-15-2004, 02:04 PM
jeffnc jeffnc is offline
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Default Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this is somehow a breakdown in the FTOP, but I do agree that you want people to make mistakes that help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to imply that. But at this point, if people agree that MP2 made a good play, then with respect to FTOP I think we have to consider that UTG+1 made a good play too. Let's assume UTG+1 can see everyone's cards when they are turned over at the turn. SB bets. Now if the MP2 raise after a UTG+1 call is a good play, then it has to be because there's a chance SB will fold. UTG+1 realizes that his best chance to win this hand is if SB folds. If MP2 raising is a good play, then UTG+1 can recognize this as the play MP2 might make. Therefore, UTG+1 should call. Not raise, which might drive out MP2 without folding SB, but just call, knowing that MP2 will raise if he's smart. SB now faces the prospect of beating 2 players, the second of whom raised even when faced with 2 players already in the pot. That might be enough to get SB to fold. So, I think if you call MP2's play good, you have to call UTG+1's play good too, because he is the one to benefit from this.

Or, does this argument mean in fact that if it benefits UTG+1, then MP2's raise is a mistake after all?
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