CAP or call? You decide! Rags hit trips from BB.

Stealthy · #1 12-17-2005, 01:02 PM

Vilain is 61/2/0.6 over very few hands and the main reason I sat at the table. I am only a few orbits into the game and have won all 3 pots I played at without a showdown.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button folds.

River: (5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero?

This comes down again to my lack of experience in these games as I did not know whether capping was +EV or spewing and took a while deciding. Feel free to comment on my turn call as well, I know there was a 2 flush out but the board was otherwise ragged and I wanted to see if I could get an overcall from the Button who was also a 60 VP$IP player.

#2 12-17-2005, 01:12 PM

I call here, this guy woke up on the 6, your kicker isn't great however you won't be faced with a re-raise.

You know that if you raise it will be 4 bets, and if you call it will be 3-bets. There are 6 (6x) you lose to and 5 (6x) you beat which he would play the same. He may also play a set this way and there aren't many 3-bet hands you beat other than worse 6-x.

True

#3 12-17-2005, 01:23 PM

Hi Stealthy-

You should have raised the turn. You have a strong but vulnerable hand, raise it and charge more for the flush draw, if someone's going for it.

River probably doesn't matter too much. Because you didn't raise the turn, you haven't represented a lot of strength here so it's probably a coin flip whether you should cap it or not. Expect to sometimes see a hideously overplayed KQ or something like that, often it'll be something like a rivered 77 or perhaps a set of 2s he hit on the flop. He may have a 6, and the question is, is his 6x lower than yours or higher?

So cap if you want to, doubt it matters but it might get you more action if you're planning on playing long term with this villain.

#4 12-17-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Stealthy-

River probably doesn't matter too much. Because you didn't raise the turn, you haven't represented a lot of strength here so it's probably a coin flip whether you should cap it or not. Expect to sometimes see a hideously overplayed KQ or something like that, often it'll be something like a rivered 77 or perhaps a set of 2s he hit on the flop. He may have a 6, and the question is, is his 6x lower than yours or higher?

So cap if you want to, doubt it matters but it might get you more action if you're planning on playing long term with this villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the way you played this a lot, in my opinion your hand is hardly vulnerable. You are talking 2 outs a lot of the time, or a flush draw for 7 outs.

Your stats are really not worth much since they aren't conclusive enough but at the end of the day this guy seems like a passive fish who probably isn't betting a flush draw. He either has you beat or has 2 outs to improve.

The other player however could have a flush draw but that isn't exactly concrete, he could have a pair / an over a lot of the time and the overcall is fine. IF he was definitely on a flush draw then raising is better than calling.

About capping the river, this guy has 3-bet here on the river, for someone so passive (apparently) this is a huge hand and from the way this has played out it is indicative of 6-x >90% of the time.

We lose to more 6-x than we win, with sets cancelling out hands we beat so I think this is a call.

N.B. He will definitely have 3-bet with A6 but may not have 3-bet with 63 so it is slightly tilted towards a better hand than yourself.

True

Stealthy · #5 12-17-2005, 01:52 PM

There are a few reasons why I disagree with the assessment of the vilain.

1. Yes his aggression rating is low but as he is seeing so many flops that any top pair hand and he is probably expecting to have the best hand with little consideration of what I might have.

2. A VP$IP of 60 is so high that by definition he is going to be a very poor player with little understanding of how to play well or when to raise, call or fold.

3. Again because he is so loose he is almost certainly a player who looses heavily on a regular basis. These players are going to be on constant tilt at times and money blind with their poker accounts. We have all been in raising wars n limit when we have been fortunate enough to be sitting on the nuts and the other guy has just capped the 2 big streets with hands often as bad as middle pair.

I am not very experienced at these games but would expect to see another 6 nowhere near the 90% suggested. At full ring yes, 6 Max no.

TomBrooks · #6 12-17-2005, 01:57 PM

I raise the turn and cap it if three bet. If I capped the turn and SB led out the river, I'd give him credit for better trips and just call. If he checked the river, I'd bet and just call a checkraise.

As played, I cap the river. I can't put him specifically on better trips yet; and the way you played it, I don't think he's always assuming you have trip sixes. He might have Q7 for two pair. He also might have 96, 86 or 65 for lesser trips. It's slightly possible he has AQ (TPTK), although he shouldn't be three betting the river with that.

Stealthy · #7 12-17-2005, 02:17 PM

The more I think about this the more I dislike it. The +EV in getting a call from the button is far outweighed by the extra EV of a turn raise. Worse case senario is I raise the turn button folds and SB calls and check/calls river. for 3BB profit from turn to river. Even worse Button who is drawing gets to see the river for 1BB instead of 2 and outdraws me.

Best case I get 3 bet and CAP and then call a river lead or bet/call if checked to. 5-6 BB from turn profit. Even better button comes along for the ride and I make even more if I am good.

The way I played it I could still have been facing a check/call from the SB for only 2BB profit from turn. Even if he leads the river I only get the same as I get (if he just called my raise) if I had raised the turn.

The extra bet from the button (which I failed to get anyway) is not enough overlay to make the turn call correct and I missed a clear raise I think.

#8 12-17-2005, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about this the more I dislike it. The +EV in getting a call from the button is far outweighed by the extra EV of a turn raise. Worse case senario is I raise the turn button folds and SB calls and check/calls river. for 3BB profit from turn to river. Even worse Button who is drawing gets to see the river for 1BB instead of 2 and outdraws me.

Best case I get 3 bet and CAP and then call a river lead or bet/call if checked to. 5-6 BB from turn profit. Even better button comes along for the ride and I make even more if I am good.

The way I played it I could still have been facing a check/call from the SB for only 2BB profit from turn. Even if he leads the river I only get the same as I get (if he just called my raise) if I had raised the turn.

The extra bet from the button (which I failed to get anyway) is not enough overlay to make the turn call correct and I missed a clear raise I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is spot on.