Baseball Total Bases

[mrbaseball]

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05/05/05 Yes -300

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Line seems fair to good on this side and bad on the other side. Based on this seasons sample Crawford has played in all 28 games and hit safely in 21 of them. Meaning his is 21-7 or a 75% chance. Factor in a rookie and the Yankees bullpen? It is a small sample. May be some value here but I tend to stay away from laying this kind of juice and props in general. But I'm intersted to see if there may be some good props with good values. I'm always looking to expand my opportunities. Good luck if you play it.

[TheRover]

Thanks guys.

[DougOzzzz]

Not too much time today. No picks yesterday, thus the record stands at 2-0 +2 units.

Here's today's table: Total Bases 05/06/2005. The pick of the day appears to be Jose Guillen over Edgardo Alfonzo (+0.5, -160). A quick glance at the stats gives me no reason to doubt my projection system, so I'll go with it. I'm also going to go with Albert Pujols (-0.5, +110) over Phil Nevin. The edge on this is a bit on the small side however at 3.62%.

[DougOzzzz]

Yesterday: 0-2 -2.6
Year To Date: 2-2 -0.6
Both Pujols and Guillen failed to get a hit. Guillen was pulled after 3 PAs for a pinch runner - guess my spreadsheet wasn't prepared for that. He needed just a single to win the bet.

Anyways, another somewhat rushed day. Here's the table: Total Bases 05/07/05 .

PECOTA seems all over Guillen over Alfonzo (again). So I'll trust it - he hits higher up in the order than Alfonzo and he's on the road so he should theoretically get more PAs. Statistically, Guillen has a nice edge. Last season, Guillen hit .294 with a .500 slugging average, Alfonzo only hit .289 with a .407 slugging. Alfonzo has been "hot" this year with a .337 average, but the ISO is similar to last year and a career .289 hitter for 10 seasons whose never hit above .315 is just not likely to keep it up. Given an extra half base and -150 line with likely more PAs, I can't fault the system for seeing an edge in Guillen.

Other play is Dmitri Young (+0.5, -130) over Vladimir Guerrero. The spreadsheet sees a small edge - but to add to it, Young has hit quite a bit better against Rightys in his career.

[DougOzzzz]

Yesterday 0-1 -1.3
YTD 2-3 -1.9

Guillen outslugged Alfonzo - but he didn't start, so the bet was cancelled. Young failed to get a hit; Guerrero waited until the bottom of the 9th to finally single. Oh well

Today's table: Total Bases 5/8/05

Will go with Guillen over Alfonzo yet again - there was a solid edge on Friday's game, and it has increased each game. My spreadsheet thinks that Guillen will win this one a whopping 68.5% of the time.

Vernon Wells is given a slight edge over Paul Konerko. Wells has had about 25 0-fers this season (he's on my fantasy squad), so I'm not about to bet on him now.

[DougOzzzz]

Yesterday: 1-0 +1
YTD: 3-3 -0.9

Guillen homered, negating Alfonzo's strong performance (single, double) and ending my slight downswing.

Today: matchups are up at WSEX, but the money lines are not posted yet so there are no official picks as of now. Here's the table thus far: Total Bases 5/9/05 . Will post picks based on the table once the lines come in.

[DougOzzzz]

Money lines are up now. Updated table: Total Bases 5/9/05 . The 2nd table has the updated lines with the calculated edges. Nothing looks real good today. Once again, PECOTA doesn't like Alfonzo, but the edge is much smaller than it was the past 3 days against Guillen. No bets today.