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  #1  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:29 PM
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Default JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

Party $2 MTT 115 of 1000 left, 100 get paid.
Blinds 300/600. Villain and I both have about 10k
No strong reads on villain, but saw him limp AK UTG a few hands back, he never seems to raise preflop. Table in general quite passive.

I am dealt JTo UTG, I call. Villain (UTG+1) calls. SB completes, BB checks. The flop is Q9T. Checked to me, I bet 1200 into the 2400 pot, villain makes it 3.5k. Do I push here, is there another line I can take on the flop (people underbet a lot in these tournaments), should I have folded preflop or maybe raised to steal given we are close to the money?
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  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:38 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

You limped UTG for 1/14th of your stack with JTo. Was the purpose to steal after the flop? I think you are better off folding, but you could steal raise UTG with the bubble. I generally don't play JTo.

I think you have to push when villain raises on the flop, and hope he doesn't have a made straight. Your hand is very strong, but connected high cards make for a lot of strong hands.
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  #3  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:41 PM
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

jto utg makes my stomach bleed. How bout a hand converter next time.
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  #4  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:58 PM
ZBTHorton ZBTHorton is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

[ QUOTE ]
CALLING jto utg makes my stomach bleed.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP
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  #5  
Old 12-27-2005, 10:13 PM
Elaboration Elaboration is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

FishMonger,

Fold pf. What are you looking to accomplish with a potenitally dominated hand oop?

Once to the flop, I dont like a push because I dont see what better hand folds in a $2 MTT.

Best-
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  #6  
Old 12-27-2005, 10:19 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

[ QUOTE ]
FishMonger,

Fold pf. What are you looking to accomplish with a potenitally dominated hand oop?

Once to the flop, I dont like a push because I dont see what better hand folds in a $2 MTT.

Best-

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a strong draw here. You have to push. with a pair plus open ended, how do you determine what is a better hand.
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  #7  
Old 12-27-2005, 10:43 PM
Elaboration Elaboration is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

Betgo,

I dont think the draw is that strong. You can't often say hero has 13 clean outs.

If we put villian on a generous range(Q8-QJ,KT-KQ,T9,99,AT-AJ), I think Hero needs more FE than he has to make this a push.
Though I could certainly be convinced otherwise.
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  #8  
Old 12-28-2005, 11:52 PM
Elaboration Elaboration is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

Betgo,

Finally got around to this. I think a push here is spewing. Thoughts?

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.4735 % [ 00.30 00.05 ] { JTo }
Hand 2: 65.5265 % [ 00.61 00.05 ] { 99, AJs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-Q8s, J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-Q8o }
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  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 12:11 AM
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

Fold JTo preflop. You are out of position with a drawing hand. This is not a good situation, since you cannot take too much heat with JTo when there is a lot of action.

Given the situation which you describe i would agree with betgo and push. You have a pair + a draw which is a strong holding. What is villain's range?
If he had a set I suppose that he wouldn't have raised immediately. QT, Q9 are fairly loose holdings in early position, altough he has 10k and the blinds are 300/600. The only reasonable holding which beats you is AQ. If he really has AQ you still have outs, so push.
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  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 12:16 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

[ QUOTE ]
You have a strong draw here. You have to push. with a pair plus open ended, how do you determine what is a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a strong draw when two pair puts 4 to the straight on the board. I'd give him credit for 10 outs and that's probably generous.

The call pre-flop is bad for exactly the reasons why you're having a tough time with this hand. Your out of position with a draw and can't figure out what to do. If you think you can steal the pot with a raise, okay. I doubt that'll work often enough at this buy-in to make it worthwhile. And if you're going to do that it really doesn't matter what you have. To me this is a clear fold 90% of the time or more.

Disclaimer: I've never played a $2 MTT so I'm not sure if this point is valid. But you make a 1/2 pot sized bet into a pretty draw heavy board after limping UTG. I'm not even sure I'd play AA/KK like that. Seems week to me and if I had chips I'd raise you with nothing.

I don't think you've got the pot odds to call. Even the implied odds aren't great as if you make your straight I think the action is dead. It's push or fold. If you push you're risking 8200 to win 13000. If you have 10 outs you're about 1.86 to 1 to improve by the river. You're not quite getting good enough odds so a fold is correct unless you think he'll fold to a push, which I don't.
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