33 in blind war

[Spicymoose]

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I 3-bet every pp in this situation.

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How does 3-betting 33 make you money?

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If our opponent is raising the top 50% of his hands, 33 has a slight equity disadvantage at 49%. Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though. Also, 3-betting will help you in the future by making him think twice about trying to steal. I don't know if we should always be reraising here, but it certainly seems like it might have merits.

I 3-bet because pps dont hit many flops and I get bigger folding equity.

[StellarWind]

Let's talk about the flop:

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Villain is a fairly good player but overaggressive in steal situations. His stats are 30/25/1.3 with a 45 atsb.

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Preflop: ... SB raises, Hero calls.

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Flop: (4 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... SB checks

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K42 rainbow and this Villain doesn't make a continuation bet?

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... Hero bets, SB raises

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Never saw that one coming [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Is betting 33 into an almost certain checkraise a good idea? Either we are far behind or he is bluffing and I don't really have any idea how likely these possibilities are. My view is that the risk of a bluff is high enough that we want a showdown and shouldn't make a plan that involves folding.

Case 1: He's slowplaying. Betting the flop is bad and 3-betting is worse. We've already invested 75% of the price of a showdown and the flop isn't even over.

Case 2: It's a bluff with at least six outs but quite possibly the elaborate bluff is based on something like 65 or 53. It might appear that raising pays off here, but does it? Couldn't we have scooped up 2 BB by just sitting back and letting him attack our weakness on the turn and river? Compare that to how the hand played out and bet/3-bet doesn't look very attractive. It's very possible that we took a gigantic risk to wind up with less than the no-risk play would have made us.

The turn is a classic example of the free card play gone awry. You only get this free card when you have the best hand. That you can't find a bet here underscores how far ahead of your hand your flop 3-bet was.

The good thing about the river bet is he is almost always bust and folding so you get to cover up. There are two other unlikely possibilities:

1. He really does have the monster and is trying to recoup the checkraise he missed on the last street. Unusual but not a bad idea on his part.

2. The eight hit his hand and he will call. Oops.

[baronzeus]

easy, easy turn bet.

[StellarWind]

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Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though.

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You mean it might help him get away from his hand when he misses the board.

This is supposed to be a good thing?

[Spicymoose]

I like your analysis. The only part I had problem with is the fact that you said

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The turn is a classic example of the free card play gone awry. You only get this free card when you have the best hand. That you can't find a bet here underscores how far ahead of your hand your flop 3-bet was.

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But I think a huge reason for not betting this turn is the A that fell. With most turns, I think we bet.

I like the idea about betting on the river to not give away your cards, and therefore information. Although I do think the bet is slightly -EV in the current hand, perhaps not giving away this information could be good. As a counter point though, shouldn't we check so that we can see his cards? If we are a better player, we will be able to use the information better than he can use the information about our cards. Furthermore we have position on him, so again, trading a look at each others hands has more benefit for you.

P.S. I love this new Quick Reply. I don't have to use the back button to constantly look at the whole thread again.

[Spicymoose]

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Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though.

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You mean it might help him get away from his hand when he misses the board.

This is supposed to be a good thing?

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He does have 6 outs when the board misses him, and therefor 25% equity in a 6 BB pot. I think winning it immediately is good. I do understand your point about wanting him to bluff more money at us when he is behind though.

[StellarWind]

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He does have 6 outs when the board misses him, and therefor 25% equity in a 6 BB pot. I think winning it immediately is good. I do understand your point about wanting him to bluff more money at us when he is behind though.

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The typical situation arises when he has K8 on a Q74 flop. It is unlikely that you will get a player like this away from his hand on the flop. If you call preflop he will bet the flop and if you 3-bet preflop he will peel a card getting 7-1. So if he is going to hit his hand on the turn all I can say is too bad.

The crossroads arrives at the turn. He needs to consider that he may have the best hand here plus he could improve. 2 BB hang in the balance according to whether he decides to keep going or checkfold. Six outs on the river don't begin to pay for that in a 4 BB pot and don't forget that you could be holding a set by now. You really don't want him to find this fold.

[Lmn55d]

If you can't fold to the flop checkraise I think you should have checked the flop. How often does a guy like this check the flop? A good, overaggressive player who raised preflop would rather see a K42 rainbow flop than have sex . In my experience this is almost always a monster or him trying to represent a monster by checkraising. However, the frequency of this "fake monster checkraise" isn't enough that you want to induce the raise by betting. Instead maybe induce some bluff turn and river bets and get to showdown. The only reason I would bet the flop is if I know he would only raise with a better hand, in which case I can save myself 1.5 BB by bet/folding. I hate the flop 3bet.

[Spicymoose]

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The typical situation arises when he has K8 on a Q74 flop. It is unlikely that you will get a player like this away from his hand on the flop. If you call preflop he will bet the flop and if you 3-bet preflop he will peel a card getting 7-1.

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I think the situation you described is not typical. This is an agressive stealer, so he not have an overcard to the board, plus an overcard to the middle card. He may peel on the flop in your situation, but do you think he peels after your 3-bet when:

1. He has 86s and the board comes KT3
2. He has J6o and the board comes Q97
3. He has 44-66 and the board comes A87

I am probably doing the opposite now, and comming up with atypical flops in the other direction, but I do think that often we will be able to take it down with a bet on the flop.

Calling and raising most flops seems like it has merits too. But he will get to the turn more likely in that scenario (at least that is my opinion, I could be wrong), and I would rather him not see the turn.

These two lines are different, but seem close in value. I think metagame is important when you have two lines that are close in value, and I think the preflop 3-bet might be better for metagame.