Betting vs calling with a draw

[HouseCalls]

OK first of all this hand never happened. I'm making this up as a hypothetical situation to help me clarify something that Mr. Wookie was trying to explain to me the other day. So here goes:

Hero UTG+1 with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG fold, Hero calls, EP2 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop (18SB; 9 players) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, EP3 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, EP3 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn (12BB; 3 players) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Ok here is the question: What to do here. My usual method of evaluating this has been to say that I have 15 outs (9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, plus 3 non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q's, and 3 non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7's) At 15 outs I'm about 2.1:1 to make my hand. With 12BB in the pot I bet.
Now Mr. Wookie suggested that whether or not to bet is not based on pot odds but depends more on how many callers you expect. Thus in this example with 15 outs I'm about 30% to make my hand so I need to have at least three callers since there are only two players left I can't bet here.

Is this logic correct for deciding whether or not to bet???

Ok say I don't bet and the action is as follows:

Turn (12BB; 3 players) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP1 bets, Button raises, Hero?

Now there are 15BB in the pot and I have to put in two bets. I'm still getting 7.5:1 and the break even odds for my hand are 2.1:1 so I can call.

Is this right?

I'm still very new and fairly confused to the idea of using pot equity for betting decisions and pot odds for calling decisions.

Does this make sense or am I still confused??

[elindauer]

You've got it. I'll say it again to help it crystalize in your mind.

Consider the simple case where it is checked to you on the river. We're always weighing risks vs rewards. If you check, you can just find out if you win the pot. If you bet, bluffing aside, you can't win the pot. Just the 1 extra bet your opponent may call with. So you only bet if you have the best hand more than 50% of the time you are called. That is, you win 1 bet for every 1 bet you risk, so you have win better than 1:1. If you expected 4 callers, you'd just have to win better than 4:1, or 20% of the time. The reward in this case is 4 bets, and the risk is 1, so if you win more than 1 time in 5, it's a good value bet.


When you are calling, you don't have the option to just not put any money in and show it down. So now, when deciding to call, you have to look at all the money in the pot as the reward to the money you risk by calling.


good luck.
eric

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
At 15 outs I'm about 2.1:1 to make my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just until the next card. To determine your equity, you need to see how often you'll be good by the river. In this case, you'll hit your outs over 50% of the time. In that case, you only need one other player with you in order to cap this on the flop for value. With one other player, you'd be putting in half of the money, but winning over half of the time.

Do some searches for the term equity. This is what you're looking for.

[HouseCalls]

bump

[BriPlay]

I kinda go with how Gary Carson describes it.. Pot odds for deciding to call or not..numbers of players/callers to help decide bet/raise/call with draws..with 15 outs if you have 2 callers you make money on the BETS, not the pot.

Brian

In your hypothetical hand, I 3bet the Flop and bet out on the Turn regardless of what hits. If I get to the River against only one opponent, I bet that too regardles of whether I hit a draw or not.

The 3bet may drive out the original Bettor and puts a lot of pressure on the Button, who may have been Raising with either the Flush or Straight draws.

That 3bet just screams "I have a Set" and may win you the hand even without hitting a draw.

[milesdyson]

you have it down, basically.

now go deeper. just don't think like this:

- will i get enough callers for my bet to be profitable?

think like this:

- what is my best chance of getting enough callers for my bet to be profitable?

in this hand, you may expect to get enough callers simply by betting. but because the preflop raise came from your left, you want to check and see how many callers you get before committing more chips to the pot.

keep playing and applying what you know and eventually this will be really automatic.

[nomadtla]

Yeah I think you're getting it. Equity is based on beting/raising your draws when you have enough players in the pot that you are putting a lower percentage into the pot then your chance to win the pot. In this case you have about a 30% chance to win this pot but are putting in (1/3)33% of the pot assuming both call. If there was another player that you knew would stick around then a bet could be made for value, since then you would be puting in (1/4)25% of a pot that you will win 30% of the time.
A raise could be debated on this flop since on the flop you have 15 outs twice over giving you around 50% equity in a pot where you're putting in 33%.
I hope that helps.

[MrWookie47]

You've got the right idea. However, I'd strongly consider 3betting that flop.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got the right idea. However, I'd strongly consider 3betting that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Pumping the crap out of your strong draws is easy money against the loose-passives and unthinking LAGs who inhabit microlimit games.