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  #1  
Old 10-20-2005, 01:42 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

Depending on how you feel this might be heaven or hell (ok, it's hell), but you are going to play an unending series of SnGs with the same people. The villian in this hand is not always going to play the same way, but is going to represent a typical opponent. That is, if 80% of people play the hand one way, the villian will play it that way 80% of the time, etc.

Now over the course of this infinity of hands, on a subset of occasions you will find your self heads up against villian post-flop you will have QQ and the devil will wink at you. Regardless of how villian played preflop, this wink will tell you that half the time villian has JJ and the other half villian has KK. The flop is 269 rainbow. Villian doesn't get any clues about your hand.

What is your plan? You should certainly have a plan for when turn and river miss both of you. Does buyin (presumed skill of the table) affect your play? How does position affect it? Assume there was a raise and a call preflop but the pot is still small enough for either of you to get away from. How does it affect your plan if you were the raiser or villian was? How sensitive are you to the pot size?

It is not late in the SnG, you both have something near your starting stacks and blinds are low. Given this, does it make a difference if, say, it is level 1 vs level 2.

I know the back story is not necessary, but I wanted you to be thinking of this as a general strategy issue and not just one hand. Also, please feel free to just answer some of the questions or just give your general thoughts on these kind of situations or add any factors I have missed.
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  #2  
Old 10-20-2005, 02:07 PM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

Well there's 6 cards we would love to see on the turn or river (4 A, 2 Q) and two we would hate (2 J). The ones which would be good most of the time would be the 2 K's as his action should then tell us if indeed he has the other two, or the JJ. Other than that some runner runner flush or straight possibilities would be nice, too.
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  #3  
Old 10-20-2005, 10:19 PM
Patrick del Poker Grande Patrick del Poker Grande is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

There's no possible RR Flush, because the flop is rainbow, unless you're playing with a fouled deck and you've got suited QQ.

I personally am going to play this for a small pot. If it's level 1 or 2, unless I'm way outclassed, I'm not looking to risk crippling or elimination on a 50/50 shot. Maybe that's weak, but there's a better place to get my money in.

Say you go for broke every time and all your chips get in the middle. I don't know about the $109s or the $215s, but at the lower levels, 80% of the players would end up with all their money in the pot in this situation by the end of the hand, if not on the flop or turn. Half the time, you're ending up with a double stack right from the start and half the time, you're gone. If my ITM is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-45%, then I'm already down to 50% with this one play. How likely am I to make the money with this double stack? If I make it 90% of the time that I double up, then I'm going to be ITM 45% overall. I don't have a significant sample size of times that I've doubled up in the first round, so I can't say what my success rate is there, but 90% seems like it might be tough to hit, even with a double stack.
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  #4  
Old 10-20-2005, 10:41 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

Every chip added to the pot is a chip you are only going to get 50% of and that's not a good chip to go into the pot. So, as long as the dead money already in the pot remains signficant compared to what you will have to put in, you would want to stay, but if you knew too many chips were going to go in the pot you would want to fold. What do you think about that?

Of course, another complication is if you think you can push villian off the hand. I probably should have constructed it so that hand that is far ahead of you is too good to count on anyone folding as that is often the case in a way ahead, way behind scenerio.
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  #5  
Old 10-20-2005, 10:58 PM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

Shouldn't this be pretty similar to calling an all-in preflop with a middle pair if you now your opponent has AK?

Basically, considering that you're 50/50, every bet/call you make is EV neutral. Does your opponent know that you can put him on either KK or JJ? If that's the case, he should check/fold JJ bet or call with KK, mixing things up on occasion (bluff with JJ, check-raise KK, etc).

The problem is that the typical opponent will play JJ and KK exactly the same on that flop, and you have absolutely no way of knowing what he could have.

It's basically like any call-a-flip situation preflop. If I think I have a significant edge over my opponents, I'm going to wait for a better situation. If I have a small edge or even a dog to the field, I'll try to get my money in and hope for the best.

Obviously you don't need to play for your stack here, but I think the basic idea is that you need to determine whether it's worth it or not to put any chips in, and if you decide it is, then it's worth it to commit your whole stack.
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  #6  
Old 10-21-2005, 12:02 AM
SCfuji SCfuji is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

check it down and push when an ace turns.
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  #7  
Old 10-21-2005, 12:17 AM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously you don't need to play for your stack here, but I think the basic idea is that you need to determine whether it's worth it or not to put any chips in, and if you decide it is, then it's worth it to commit your whole stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You have some dead chips in there which are worth having. If the new chips are 50/50 you should want as few of them in there as possible, but as long as the dead chips aren't insignificant you shouldn't fold. What significant is in this case depends on your advantage over the field. I guess if you thought you were at a disadvantage to the field you would want those 50/50 chips.

I'm not sure though and I have a related idea for another post which I will make.
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  #8  
Old 10-21-2005, 12:24 AM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

[ QUOTE ]
If the new chips are 50/50 you should want as few of them in there as possible

[/ QUOTE ]
Against your typical opponent, I don't know if that's feasible. Calling down gets min value vs JJ, but of course loses the least vs KK. But since we're against a typical opponent, he'll eventually try to get all his chips in the middle, unless a scary turn or river card comes.

The way I see it, raising him on the flop is your worst possible play because he's going to come over the top, in which case you're now playing for your stack. If you opt not to raise at any point, you're now at the mercy of your opponent in that you commit however many chips he opts to bet.
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  #9  
Old 10-21-2005, 12:33 AM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

Well, if you don't think you are likely to be able to keep all the chips from ending up in the pot, I guess you just decide if there is enough dead money in the middle already to make it worth it.
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  #10  
Old 10-21-2005, 07:27 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

There is one more point I wonder about. Does the Villian know you know he has JJ or KK..?
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