Deep stack implied odds call

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Its fine if you know your player. If you know you will be able to push him out of the hand on certain boards or if you know he'll never lay down AA when you flop trips, you can call. If you don't know him so well and don't have a clear idea of what sort of board you need to win the pot (either by representing something or by value betting something when he can't fold), you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the villian made out the huge raise, I could tell he had probably 10-10+ or AK. I was about to automuck when I thought "This guy just lost a bad hand, he is obviously upset with his huge raise". So I called.

We're heads up to a flop of 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

He bets 10 dollars into the 8 dollar pot. I raised to $24 dollars, and he pushed all in with his Queens.

The whole table hated the play, and I thought it was close, but to call $4 to make $75 I'll call with most suited cards if I know I can stack the guy.

If I had just sat down at the table, and I have no reads, I think this is a fold most times though.

Thanks for all the input.

Brad

[xorbie]

Gotta watch out for reverse implied odds though. If villain flops a set you're basically dead, and on a great draw you're 60% to win (and gonna have to win at showdown, he's not folding an overpair).

So realistically, you take his stack on maybe 80% of nice flops, but he takes you're the other 20%.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta watch out for reverse implied odds though. If villain flops a set you're basically dead, and on a great draw you're 60% to win (and gonna have to win at showdown, he's not folding an overpair).

So realistically, you take his stack on maybe 80% of nice flops, but he takes you're the other 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. Xorbie, do you not like the call in this spot then?

Brad

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
So are we agreed that we are only happy while calling here if we get a 66x, 33x, 63x, or 4s5sx type flop? If so, is a call warranted given the implied odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I did a couple of quick calculations at work and here is what I came up with:

You will flop one of the above hands 12.6%* of the time. Of course, you won't win every time you get one of these flops, so let's say that you will lose 25% of the time you hit one (debatable, but at least in the ballpark I think).

Given that:

EV = 0.126(0.75x - 0.25x) - 3.5(1 - 0.126)

setting EV = 0 (where x is the amount you must win), we get:

0 = 0.063x - 3.059

or

x = $48.56

If this is correct, then the call is +EV given the stack sizes if you are certain that you can get his whole stack in when you hit (and I'm not so sure about that assumption).

Mack

* - Disclaimer: I did this in about 10 minutes at work, and I haven't double checked it, so someone might want to make sure I didn't make an obvious math error.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
EV = 0.126(0.75x - 0.25x) - 3.5(1 - 0.126)

[/ QUOTE ]

Small problem I see with this is that we are assuming that when we win, it's the same amount as when we lose. But with these types of flops, I think we don't win as much as when we lose. He will get away from missed overs (when we have the best hand), but we lose a lot when he has a better hand.

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
You will flop one of the above hands 12.6%* of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops...screwed that up....I don't have my original chicken-scratches here at home, but a quick once through here and it looks like I was way off on this number. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

When I did it just now, I come up with 4.3% that you hit the flop (given the stated conditions for hitting), but this still could be wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyway, if it is 4.3%, then you need to win ~ $156 to make this +EV even if you can get the villian all-in every time you hit. So, clearly bad.

Could somebody do a sanity check on this percentage for hitting the flop for me? I've been lazy about crunching these kinds of numbers for a long time, and now I'm doubting myself (for obvious reasons, I included the cases of flopping 333 or 666).

[trevor]

This is awful. I am rarely this harsh but this flat out stinks. It's only worth discussing since you flopped two 3's. Based on your rationale this might as well be a call pre-flop w/ any two. Outside of this flop you are going to check-fold quite a bit. I hate it and you lucked out. Glad it worked though.