Hypothetical question

[Freudian]

Say you have 1500 chips and blinds are 50/100. You get 99 and raise to 300. Fold to BB who has 1300-1500 chips who pushes all-in.

What kind of read on the player would you need to call? What kind of read on the player would you need to fold?

[HighestCard]

I would have to fold this unless villain is LAGgy, or if this is late in the game. Your a big under to over pairs, most likely a coin flip which you do have the odds to call, but im not likeing doing this untill around bubble play. The only time you would have a big advantage (22-88, X9) villains play would not indicate these hands in his pocket.

[bluewilde]

I'd have to be very confident he has a lower PP, or that he has one and only one overcard. It would suck to lose those 300 chips, but if I call and he shows me two cards above a T, I'm about 55% to win. If he shows me an overpair, I'm screwed. It would depend on how may players are left, but with some good stealing, I can get those 300 chips back fairly quickly.

So yeah, if he has two overcards I'm 55%, and I think I still have enough chips relative to the blinds to be more than a 55% favorite to place just by playing well and stealing effectively. However, I'm not confident that I can go on to place 70% (villain has only one overcard) or 80% (villain has an underpair) of the time if I fold, so I call if I can confidently put him on one of these dominated/semi-dominated hands. I doubt, however, I can do that most of the time, so most of the time I fold and mutter something about "should have pushed" (not saying I disagree with the raise, just that I don't love the response).

[jgunnip]

Unless we were already in the money, I'm most likely letting it go.

[Nick B.]

You realize how bad it would be if you folded and he had AK. Atleast in the higher limits.

[Nick B.]

It depends how many players are left (which matters because of the payouts and how many off the button you are), and if he has been coming over the top of people recently. 99 is a pretty good hand and I wouldn't want to give it up easily.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize how bad it would be if you folded and he had AK. Atleast in the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. With the price I am getting I have to be very confident in my read because if I guess wrong I am making a pretty big mistake.

[bluewilde]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize how bad it would be if you folded and he had AK. Atleast in the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Honestly I don't. Could you guys explain? Granted, my frame of reference is the lower limits where aggressive bubble stealing is probably vastly easier. Is that what makes the difference?

I've open-pushed 99 and been called by KJ-type hands and about half the time, I'm out. AK has the same relative strength. I suppose what influences the decision is what kind of chance you have if you fold (lower at higher buy-ins), and the kind of advantage a large stack gives you, assuming you win (is this a larger edge at higher buy-ins? At lower ones being big stack just makes people desperate and they love to call with T8).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You realize how bad it would be if you folded and he had AK. Atleast in the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Honestly I don't. Could you guys explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if you are indeed in a "coin-flip" type situation its is terrible to fold getting like 1.3:1 on your money.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

Well if you are indeed in a "coin-flip" type situation its is terrible to fold getting like 1.3:1 on your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

more like 1.5:1, if you have 1500. (right? 300+300+1200, and calling 1200).

If he does have AK and you fold, you are giving up like 450 in chips which is 1/20th the amount in play and you are giving them to your opponent.