PP100NL - stacking off w/bottom 2 on flop

[ethan]

Haven't played with opponent much, he seems a little loose, not particularly good, and a little too aggro postflop. PT has him around 40/8 preflop. When he makes the first raise, I figure he has top pair, diamonds, 45, 78, or maybe a set. 77-88 would also be possible. When he pushes, I remove 77-88 from that list but I think the rest of it's about the same. The push makes TT/JJ slightly more possible I suppose, but I think he would have raised those preflop. I suppose there's some tiny chance of him having 96s, but I think a 9 or a draw is most likely here.

If I just call his $6 to see the turn, I'm scared by any 2, 5, 7, 9, T, or diamond (25 cards). If by some miracle none of those come, I have even more scare cards on the river.

How's my line? What would you do if he just flat-calls the $20 flop bet? I'm never a huge fan of bottom two, and even less so with 100BB, but I thought I was ahead too often not to play them strongly.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($267.4)
MP1 ($94.25)
MP2 ($97)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 ($97.3)</font>
CO ($157.9)
Button ($112.55)
SB ($145.35)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($100)</font>
UTG ($100.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $6</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $96.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $76.30.

Final Pot: $196.60

[tbach24]

I probably fold to the min-raise. I definetly fold to the re-re-re-raise.

[greg nice]

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PP100NL - stacking off w/bottom 2 on flop

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this cant be good.

[BobboFitos]

good news is you're not likely facing a bigger two pair.

bad news is you're basically dead vs top set or mid set.

Stupid min raise...

Cant fault your play.

[ QUOTE ]
I figure he has top pair, diamonds, 45, 78, or maybe a set. 77-88 would also be possible. When he pushes, I remove 77-88 from that list but I think the rest of it's about the same.

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I think overpair are unlikely, and TP only if this player has overplayed a hand like A9 or K9 before.

I think you're looking at a big draw, so 45 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 78 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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How's my line? What would you do if he just flat-calls the $20 flop bet? I'm never a huge fan of bottom two, and even less so with 100BB, but I thought I was ahead too often not to play them strongly.

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Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

[BobboFitos]

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I probably fold to the min-raise. I definetly fold to the re-re-re-raise.

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You fold bottom two to the min raise??

The fold to the re-re-raise could be argued, and I think my original post has faulty logic, but folding to the min raise is weak and bad.

[tbach24]

Yeah, but I'm tight-weak now.

[Triumph36]

If you're that scared, don't even bet a flop. I know you're trying to rationalize your line here, but I say call the raise and lead out at ANY (non-nine) turn. If the opponent raises you there also, you can be done with the hand.

You are either way ahead or way behind here; I don't see an opponent re-opening the betting with just a flush draw. I think that re-raise was out of fear and as a result you ended up playing a far bigger pot than you wanted to. You might've won if Villain is bad enough to re-re-re-raise an overpair here, but I can't see what hand you beat that min-raises and then raises all in.

[ethan]

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I probably fold to the min-raise. I definetly fold to the re-re-re-raise.

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I can't find a fold facing the min-raise; my hand's just too strong for that. Facing the push I'm getting 1.6:1. If my read on his hand range is correct I think those odds are good enough to make it a call. Do you think I'm wrong on the range? What would you put him on?

[tbach24]

Yeah, I changed my mind. But I definetly fold to the r-r-r-raise.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

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What would you raise it to? Raising the pot would make it 22 with $75 left behind, so a turn push would be 1.5x the pot. Raising 1.5x the pot on the flop would be to 30, so if he calls that my turn push would then be exactly the pot. The latter sounds about like what you're going for.

If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?