tpwk hu in blinds, scary board

[ethan]

Party 100NL. I haven't played much NL ring as of late, I've been focusing on SNGs and MTTs. I also just moved up to the 100 game, most of my experience has been at lower limits. Now that I have a comfortable bankroll I'm giving it a shot, but I'm only about 500 hands in. (And winning 30BB/100. Clearly sustainable.) I'm wondering it a hand like this is going to be profitable for me at these limits.

My image at this table is very, very tight. I've been getting terrible cards, and haven't gotten out of line anywhere. I've limp-folded preflop a couple times, too. Opponent in this hand: when he's had a good hand and scare cards have come he's stopped betting, even when other people in the hand are passive. He seems to think he's quite the player, and likes to berate others for their bad play. Preflop stats for him are 13%/0.5%, but he's reasonably aggressive postflop. We've been at this table for about 120 hands together.

When he check-raises the flop, I'm not too sure what he has. Could be a small flush or any pair, but I don't think it's the lone Kh. I haven't seen him playing draws aggressively. I think there's a pretty good chance I'm already ahead. I decide to play along and see what comes on the turn. When he checks the turn I'm fairly certain that he's afraid of the flush, but might be suspicious enough to look me up with a low heart. He would value-bet a good flush. I check behind, planning to raise him on the river unless he bets big. The river's about the best I could hope for and he bets small, so I go with the plan.

How's it look?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+2 ($112.05)
MP1 ($132.5)
MP2 ($311.5)
MP3 ($93)
CO ($57)
Button ($74.6)
SB ($106.5)
Hero ($121.45)
UTG ($93.6)
UTG+1 ($55.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($6) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($46) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($46) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>

[casmells]

i'd say this is terrible. i bet he called/pushed on the river and you lost/folded.

i would drop this to his raise on the flop, you only have A7, he could have a flush or just a better non-flush hand, either way you are crushed. Or if i called the flop, i would definitely drop this to his raise on the river. Think of the number of hands that he beats you with. granted, he could lay down a non-flush hand better than yours but i say he made a strong flush on the turn, and took your money. curious if others agree.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd say this is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

Just to be clear, I'm certainly not raising this river for value. Once the turn came I knew I was very unlikely to win without a successful bluff, and if he put any more money in the pot my chances of winning a showdown were about 0.

This opponent had shown that he was willing to see monsters under the bed, and if he's going to do that this is a great board for him to do so. That's why I tried the play. I'm trying to incorporate more bluffing/aggressiveness into my game, and a lot of that is working on picking my spots.

Also note that he didn't raise the river, he bet it as I'd assumed he would.