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Old 02-07-2005, 01:20 AM
evanski evanski is offline
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Default Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

This hand recently came up in a 10-25 NL game. I was a couple off the button with 99. Everyone folded to me, and I open raised to 85. The button reraised to 215. Neither of us had an especially big stack, I had about 2500, he had 1600 or so. The button seemed to be a fairly normal player, my table image was probably similar at the time, as I had just sat down. By my count, Im getting 325 to 130 or so on the call. So, playing my hand strictly for set value, and disregaring the fact that I will ocassionally lose when I flop a set, Id need about 700 bucks in postflop action to make it positive EV. I thought this was about a breakeven proposition, and to avoid messy decisions when I flop an overpair and the like, I folded. Anybody find this weak tight?

After the hand, I found myself wondering what I would have done with tens or jacks, or even queens. The proposition is more or less the same: although I will often have the best hand, it is not often enough to be willing to play it for my stack unimproved, pre or post flop. Furthermore, I am somewhat hampered by the stack size of my opponent, as if I decided to "play poker" with him, and try and figure out where I am, I will frequently be forced to put all my chips into the middle, for fear of folding the best hand against a semi-short opponent. For example:

I flop an overpair and check it to him, he pots (pretty much a certainty in this game). I:

a. Raise. If he folds, I win. If he reraises, I am getting such ridiculous odds that I am almost forced to call, as folding the best hand here would be catastrophic.

b. Call, lead the turn. Perhaps the most viable line, although on a J high flop or the like (when I hold QQ) or ten high (when I have JJ or QQ), I can see him raising with hands I beat, and I may end up making incorrect folds. Furthermore, if he just calls, I am placed in a very precarious situation in the river of playing a very large pot, and conceivable making or seeing a very large bet, with one pair.

c. Call, check the turn. This basically allows him to take the pot away from me, as I will be hardpressed to call another pot sized bet.

d. Reraise preflop. This forces him to fold everytime he has a nonpremium hand, but also allows him to trap me fairly easily with AA or KK.

However, folding pocket jacks or queens to a reraise preflop feels kind of weak. Anybody have a suggestion as to how to better play these?

-Evan
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  #2  
Old 02-07-2005, 02:30 AM
fimbulwinter fimbulwinter is offline
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Default Lame reply

Live this is a read-dependant kind of thing for me; and i really don't have a good answer for online. Probably read-dependant for knowns and play it pretty weak/tight against dark horses.

I'd like to see how the heavy hitters weigh in; good question

fim
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Old 02-07-2005, 03:13 AM
lapoker17 lapoker17 is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

Reads are certainly the key, but some general advice...

In your situation, I would've probably limped there w 99 - I think that solves half your problem. Then, I call the guy's preflop raise (which is less significant now), and lead on a non A or K flop. If he calls, I'm probably done with the hand. This is one time where being out of position isn't so bad as it is too expensive for you to call a flop bet if he has a missed AK, yet by leading on a non threatening flop, you can talke it down there.

99 is probably the dividing line for the limp, so if I have say JJ and raise and get reraised it really starts to be all about the read.
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Old 02-07-2005, 03:17 AM
BluffTHIS! BluffTHIS! is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

If you follow Doyle's SS strategy which I believe in when the game conditions warrant it (deep stacks unlike the small max buyin/blind ratio found in most online and a lot of live games), then the answer is that having raised with such a pair 99-JJ (with queens being in the same category once you are raised), YOU TAKE NO HEAT WITH THEM AND FOLD PRE-FLOP, thus avoiding any such traps as being dominated by an overpair, or in the case of a tough player who will play AK with no help on the flop the same as a pair of aces, the similar trap of making a wrong decision when you actually hold the best hand. This avoids the typical small favorite/big dog situation.

In a similar manner, had in fact you been in early position and limped and gotten raised, you would only call if the stack sizes were favorable (getting about 8-1 implied odds) or could assume another limper or two would also call and thus in toto being laid favorable odds to flop a set, which if you did not, would dictate a fold, regardless of a rag board.

[ QUOTE ]
a. Raise. If he folds, I win. If he reraises, I am getting such ridiculous odds that I am almost forced to call, as folding the best hand here would be catastrophic.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not correct. You call pre-flop the pot now stands at 215x2+35 blind $$ =465, with him now having a 2285 stack and you 1385. Now if you check and he pots it, and you min raise to like 900, and he pushes in, you are getting odds of the 1600 he matched you preflop + the 1115 you already have in the pot for 1600+1115=2715 to the 485 you have left or about 5.6-1 to call allin. Assuming that it is indeed an overpair you are facing and thus you were only a 4.5-1 dog to start, you are now, assuming he does not have one of your nines and thus 45 unseen cards after the flop, a 10.88-1 dog to make a set by the river, thus necessitating a FOLD unless you strongly believe he would make that move with only overcards.
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  #5  
Old 02-07-2005, 04:09 AM
evanski evanski is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

Your analysis regarding the situation in which I minraise and he pushes is wrong. There would be 485 in the pot, he bets 485, I minraise (which I dont especially like, but since you said it, Ill go with it). That puts 485*4 + 215 x 2 = 2170 + blinds if he pushes. He would have 1600 - 485 x 2 - 215 = 400 or so. So youre basically right in that Id be getting 5 and a half to one or so. So I need to win 1/6.5 or about 12 percent. So, even if I only have the best hand 1 in 10, or even less, the call is right. It is absolutely impossible and absolutely wrong to fold in that situation.

More importantly, you seem to be advocating it as a potential line. Even if it were right to fold in that spot, it would cost me 3/4 of my stack to find out.

-Evan
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Old 02-07-2005, 04:16 AM
BluffTHIS! BluffTHIS! is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

Sorry, I got the stack sizes reversed. What I am advocating is Doyle's strategy of taking no heat and folding pre-flop.
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Old 02-07-2005, 04:40 AM
Usagi_yo Usagi_yo is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

When I consider situations like these, here is how I figure it. If I feel like flat calling, How much of a bet on the flop am I willing to make. I'll then take that much and rounding up to some sensible number and re-raise that amount. In this case, pot size (if I call) would be 465, of which, I would bet out about $275 with a flop that I think my 99's are good (not set of 999). Since I already owe 130, I may, instead of calling, re-raise to $400. If he tries to put me all in, I'm probably done with the hand. If he calls, I have some tough decisions to make after the flop.

I would only do this against a player who can lay hands like JJ and AK down. Against AA or KK, I'm expecting the re-raise and I certainly hope they don't have QQ cuz I'm pushing if the flop comes without A or K.

Edit: Let me add, this is against a Button raise. SB or BB raise I'm probably outta here. The Button is in great re-steal position and calls bother me more then re-raises.
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  #8  
Old 02-07-2005, 06:40 AM
evanski evanski is offline
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Default Re: Preflo decisions with less than premium pocket pairs

I agree that its read dependant, the problem is my read is that I am good a decent percentage of the time (30-40% of the time maybe). The logistics seem to make it almost impossible to figure out when that is, however.
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