Ahead enough to push?

ethan · #1 01-16-2005, 04:05 AM

This is the 3rd hand of a party 30+3, 730 entrants. When I'm minraised on the flop and there's a caller before it gets back to me. I'm not sure there's much to like about this flop for someone else unless they're holding 88, a flush draw, or don't believe me. I have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so the flush draw's somewhat less likely. The button could plausibly have down to, say, 77, maybe up through TT/JJ, and I suppose he might have been "trapping" with QQ/KK but that's not something I'd expect here. If he doesn't have 88, then UTG+2 either has that or the flush draw (or is making a truly fishy play, and it's not exactly great with 88/flush either).

(I've said 88 instead of "set" through all this because I _really_ don't expect to see 22 or 33, but maybe that's presuming too much.)

At this level, this early, is the flop push good?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

Hero (t1000)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t990)
Button (t955)
SB (t770)
BB (t1000)
UTG (t1345)
UTG+1 (t985)
UTG+2 (t970)
MP1 (t985)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, 1 fold, Hero raises to t75, 2 folds, Button calls t75, SB calls t65, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls t60.

Flop: (t330) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t225, Button raises to t450, SB folds, UTG+2 calls t450, Hero raises to t925 (All-In), Button calls t430 (All-In), UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: t2585

(And this isn't a bad beat post, as I won the hand.)

Brad F. · #2 01-16-2005, 04:33 AM

I think the flop push is fine. What card on the turn is going to keep him or you from getting all your chips in anyway? A club? I think at this point there is too much in the pot already, why not just push.

I like it fine. The minraise would scare me a tad, but it's wierd at best. With no reads, it looks like this guy was me 6 months ago, thinking I could win any pot if I just pushed hard enough.

Oh wait, that was like one month ago.

Brad

ethan · #3 01-16-2005, 05:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop push is fine. What card on the turn is going to keep him or you from getting all your chips in anyway? A club? I think at this point there is too much in the pot already, why not just push.

I like it fine. The minraise would scare me a tad, but it's wierd at best. With no reads, it looks like this guy was me 6 months ago, thinking I could win any pot if I just pushed hard enough.

Oh wait, that was like one month ago.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly, if I call the extra 225 here it's all going in on the turn. Calling the flop and folding the turn just aren't consistent actions. If the turn comes [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], UTG+2 checks, and I push that could make life tricky for the button with a couple of the holdings I mentioned (QQ/KK) but _someone_ is going to call me. On anything else chances are good they'd both call me, unless the button's on the 77 end of the range I've given him.

That said, minraises still scare me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Just not enough to fold aces. My JJ would be a lot more likely to end up in the muck here.