commerce hand

[The Gift Of Gab]

10-20 NL at Commerce. I limp after some limpers in MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and a few more come in behind me. 7 or 8 of us see:

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Lots of people check, I check, guy behind me bets 200. Surprisingly, all fold to me and I call.

This guy has about 3500 and I cover. From the few hands I've seen he seems tight-aggressive. On the rail next to my elbow sits his portable fan, and on his head are Bose noise-cancelling headphones. He keeps straightening his chips and bills or subtly adjusting his fan when my arm gets too close.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, he bets 700, and I call.

River J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 1500.

[pmsnooze]

I'd like to start by saying I don't play as high as 10-20 and so am not going to try and second guess your thoughts in this hand.
I would like to say though, that I love the way you played it.
You could have fired on the turn, as it looks like he has at least a decent ace and possibly 2pr AT and wants you to go away. The call on the turn is probably scarier to him than a c/r or firing into it.
The only hand I would be worried about is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so when the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] came on the river I think it was a great bet of 1500.
He can't call with 2 pair and if he had a str8 draw which he hit (unlikely to have Q9/79 with the read tho) he has to be worried about the flush now, as well as you slow playing a set on the flop.
I look forward to seeing the result... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Matt Flynn]

you are leading the witness. by your description he is the kind who will lay down an ace there. so your bluff is good provided he's also the kind who will bet that ace on the turn. if he won't bet an ace on the turn he's (semi)bluffing or has you crushed barring maybe top two, in which case you are better off check-folding or check-raising on the turn. by your description of his habits best guess is he's not an ace-bettor or a big bluffer. so i'd check-fold the turn given you checked. also pays to bet that turn sometimes.

ni han if you won.

matt

[DOTTT]

What's your table image? You are trying to represent the flush, but does he think you will call $700 with one card to come? I think he folds an ace here, but isn't going to fold much else if he feels you’re a solid player.

[The Gift Of Gab]

I've shown down one hand where I put in a big flop raise with a pair + flush draw and sucked out on bottom set. I'm folding more than a lot of these guys, but that isn't saying much. Also, I'm younger than everyone else (but not dressed WPT-kid style.) That's what he'd seen from me; I didn't know what my image was.

[coltrane]

I'm gonna go ahead and say that I don't like your play at all - regardless of what the results were.....on the turn, you are out of position with only one more card to come and you call a $700 bet in an unraised pot with a straight/flush draw against a tight opponent when the board just paired.....I think the $2k you spent post-turn on your outs (god knows which ones - if any - are clean)/ bluffing equity (whatever) is generally -EV......I check/fold this turn all day...

[Wayfare]

Your description obviously has this guy pegged as a "folder," which changes the entire dynamic of the hand.

However, being out of position on the turn, one of two things has to happen: you have to make your hand and get in enough money by the end to justify the $700 call on the turn or bluff at the pot successfully enough to justify making the call. However, I would like to look at the flop for just a second:

On the flop you were (I assume) just looking to stack this guy cheap with a gutshot, and that call is probably a good one if you think that he is agressive enough to trap himself with only a strong ace.

Back to the turn, he is still only laying you around 1-1 on the pot, yet both your outs and "bluff outs" have improved dramatically. What I would think about when trying to count those "extra outs" with the diamonds flush (as you know he doesn't have the diamonds) is whether he will fold enough to justify a large bet on the end.

At least from my vantage point, this seems like a pot which you changed your plan mid-way, from stacking him with a gutshot to making a rather large play on him. My main question is whether it is worth EV wise to go from calling with implied odds to making a huge bluff on the end when his original flop bet was only laying you 1:1? I would have folded and moved on to the flop bet.

Note that I do not play at a level nearly this high, and I am posting partially to develop my own thought process towards situations like this.

EDIT: Would calling the flop and leading the turn be a better play due to the possibility that he is on a good ace and will start to fear a slowplayed set? Is he the type of player who will raise a stop-and-go? I know I'm not.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
if he won't bet an ace on the turn he's (semi)bluffing or has you crushed barring maybe top two, in which case you are better off check-folding or check-raising on the turn.
matt

[/ QUOTE ]

what about this addition? if you dont think he will bet his ace on the turn, then planning to check/call the turn then betting on several possible river bluff cards is not a good idea for another reason. this line is only really tempting when he bets the turn, and if there is a good chance he will check it behind, then you are stuck basically with a flush draw and a gutshot. this is because if a diamond falls, he will call your river bet too often since he thinks that your bluffing frequency increased dramatically when he checked the turn. so it is possible that if you know he will check behind with 1 pair on the turn a decent amount of the time, you may want to check planning to fold, bet, or check/raise more often than you would if you knew he would bet the turn. thoughts?

[felson]

GoG flopped a double gutter.

[schwza]

it's a double-gutter, not just a gutshot.

ok, continue your very educational thread.