T8s, 5-10 Live, trapped on flop

(Live game)

BB has just recently moved up from 2-5 to 5-10, and seems pretty aggressive on early betting rounds, while usually passive on later rounds. BB is a fairly tight player.

MP3 is tired, but nothing else special to note.

Casino Rama $5-$10 Holdem (11-handed)

Hero is MP4 with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop:
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="red"> BB raises </font>, everybody calls.

Flop: (17 sb) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (9 players) </font>
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="red">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="red">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="red">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (20.5 bb) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (6 players) </font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, BB calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

River: (26.5 bb) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>
MP3 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, BB calls and is all-in, MP3 folds

<font color="white"> This is repost of another hand, but from my own perspective. </font>

[W. Deranged]

I think the interesting question here is whether to call the two on the flop the first time. Everything else seems pretty standard.

As for the flop call:

You will be getting 11-1 on a flop call immediately. You can expect calls from those who have put one in already, so effectively your odds are more like 12.5-1. But you open yourself up to getting three-bet; if you are three-bet, your effective odds will be more like 10-1 or so, and even worse if you get capped.

So let's look at it from the point of view of needing 11-1 to proceed.

Your implied odds here are somewhat reduced because you will hit and lose pretty regularly, particularly as heavy flop action may already indicate QT or a set.

You need basically 4 outs on the nose to make the call correct at 11-1. You have 5 at most. Considering the possibility of a set, QT, or J9, I am positive you do NOT have 4 outs here on average on the flop.

So the flop is a fold.