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  #11  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:03 PM
B Dids B Dids is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

More thoughts.

This board makes it really hard for a worse hand to pay you off and you've just walked face first into like 127 hands that beat you. If you were trying to fold somebody it's a cute idea, but you've got like aces and stuff.
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  #12  
Old 12-21-2005, 06:19 PM
Evan Evan is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

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Everyone's caught up in how bad the turn is, I think we're overlooking the horrible river bet.

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Far from horrible. His opponent won't bet a Q but he'll probably call with one. Are you suggested check-fold instead?

I like to c/r the turn more than most, I think, but I don't like it on this board.

Rob

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Yea, I think he should check fold the river. He's already WAY overplayed his hand and now he got a SH!T river card.

I feel like so often we fall into the "worse hands will call if we bet but check if we check, so we should bet" mentality, without realizing that not enough worse hands call so that plan is -EV too. Sometimes betting and check-calling are -EV, so check-folding, for 0 EV, is the best we can do.
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  #13  
Old 12-21-2005, 08:14 PM
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

Since MP1 didnít 3-bet the turn, perhaps he has a baby flush or a single spade. Heís almost sure to have a flush with the 4th spade on the river.

Given your Turn CR, heís got to be thinking you filled up. But with 10+ BB in the pot, heís going to pay you off.

BUT, there is a chance he just has trip Ts & was semi-bluffing on the Turn. That may be why he didnít 3-bet the turn and was drawing for the boat. If thatís the case, he may fold to the River bet. If that was your line, I can understand the River bet.

SP
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  #14  
Old 12-22-2005, 01:50 PM
scrub scrub is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone's caught up in how bad the turn is, I think we're overlooking the horrible river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far from horrible. His opponent won't bet a Q but he'll probably call with one. Are you suggested check-fold instead?

I like to c/r the turn more than most, I think, but I don't like it on this board.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, I think he should check fold the river. He's already WAY overplayed his hand and now he got a SH!T river card.

I feel like so often we fall into the "worse hands will call if we bet but check if we check, so we should bet" mentality, without realizing that not enough worse hands call so that plan is -EV too. Sometimes betting and check-calling are -EV, so check-folding, for 0 EV, is the best we can do.

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Pot big. Jason has AA. He is HU against a guy who hasn't done anything particularly aggressive and seems as likely to be in calldown mode as to be drawing.

You really think check/folding on a non-Q river is a good idea getting 11:1 after the guy just called Jason's turn CR just because 4-liner spades came off?

scrub
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  #15  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:47 PM
Evan Evan is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

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a guy who hasn't done anything particularly aggressive and seems as likely to be in calldown mode as to be drawing

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Then I think we lose. Do you think he'll bet a Q if we check? Do you think he'll bet red KJ? I think our turn check raise protects us from that.
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  #16  
Old 12-22-2005, 03:07 PM
gopnik gopnik is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 AA

I don't like the turn c/r. You are giving a free shot for a small spade to draw on you.
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