Do I have to bet this turn?

or a K [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Redd]

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checking this turn misses out on a ton of value from UTG, If you have BB beat, he'll fold but not always, UTG doesn't want to go anywhere and will pay you off a lot w/ a worse hand here. I think you have to be able to fold to a river bet if BB c/r's and you don't improve on the river.

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I assume you mean missing value against SB? I think our equity here is very very poor, the only hand BB could have now that we are reasonably ahead of is QQ and we are behind AK/AQ/AJ/AA/KK/JJ and tied with KQ

even if we happen to be ahead we're really not way ahead of anybody. let's just check and river a T.

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With his numbers, this could be in the 88/99/TT area too. But I agree that this is a check with outs.

[bobhalford]

If I was sitting in your place, I would bet it, but wouldn't feel all that positive about it. If BB has QT, you are toast. If BB has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you are buttered toast. And if BB has a better hand than you, he is not calling, he's check-raising. I would just check behind and call a river bet. Your turn check helps to convince BB that you are weak so he bets the river with worse hands. If you bet the turn, you risk a checkraise. If I were to bet this turn, it would be with the intention of folding to a raise. I would rather take a free card in the hopes that I can suck out if I'm behind or induce a bet from a worse hand on the river. If you are ahead on the turn, then giving a free card can't be all that devastating. Sure, a Q or T could pop up and give someone a straight, but there aren't too many of those cards left in the deck, especially considering the fact that the 3 of you together might have 2 or more of those cards.

I think I might be most scared of what SB has, since he cold called two on the flop. BB could have a lot of hands that you beat - QQ/TT/99/88 or he easily could have been betting his flush draw. Problem is the flush draw most likely contains an ace, like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Any other non-heart card besides the Ace would be a bet from me.

[jba]

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With his numbers, this could be in the 88/99/TT area too. But I agree that this is a check with outs.

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after the flop action i'm discounting those hands quite a bit..

[Kumubou]

Am I the only one that thinks Hero has more than a slim chance of being ahead here? BB seems aggro enough to 3-bet the flop if he had AA, AK, or KQ (especially on a flop like that), and you are better than 50/50 against 3-betting pairs (18 combinations between 99,TT,and QQ compared to 7 combinations of JJ, KK, and AA). The only other hand I would worry about here is AQ (I doubt he is raising AJ or AT out of the BB like that).

So if it were HU it would be thin at best, I guess. Here, you have SB donking along and while he could have a random ace, he's too passive to ever let you know -- and odds are you have his hand smoked right now. So he is providing a lot of overlay on a bet here, enough so that I think betting here is correct.

-K

[kurosh]

SB being in there complicates it quite a bit. If it was HU, I would check because BB's range either has you killed or drawing to a max of 5 outs with TT, but probably 2 or so. SB looks like a loose idiot thuogh and I'd like to collect bets from him. If BB CR's, I would cry. You have to call, but have no idea which of your outs are good. Maybe 4, maybe more.

I don't know. It think it's really close. But, I think since BB checked to you, it lowers the likelihood of him having you beat, which makes it a bet.

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SB being in there complicates it quite a bit. If it was HU, I would check because BB's range either has you killed or drawing to a max of 5 outs with TT, but probably 2 or so. SB looks like a loose idiot thuogh and I'd like to collect bets from him. If BB CR's, I would cry. You have to call, but have no idea which of your outs are good. Maybe 4, maybe more.

I don't know. It think it's really close. But, I think since BB checked to you, it lowers the likelihood of him having you beat, which makes it a bet.

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I don't agree with this. He is more likely to c/r a turned improvement than to donkbet it.

True

[Redd]

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With his numbers, this could be in the 88/99/TT area too. But I agree that this is a check with outs.

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after the flop action i'm discounting those hands quite a bit..

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Even from a 26VPIP/4.5AF?