Party blackjack is attracting some sick gamblers

[MicroBob]

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"any pattern must end at some point, so the longer a pattern lasts, the more likely it is to end soon."

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if a pattern last long enough, that indicates that the roulette wheel is flawed. They confirmed that this was all they were saying

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These two ideas are contradictory.
If the wheel is flawed then that means the pattern should continue (not end soon).

I'm not convinced that a mis-calibrated wheel was all they were talking about.


Most roulette wheels these days are weighted correctly. But it is true that 'back in the day' one could find wheels with enough bias for the aware player to actually be +EV.

[Homer]

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According to Wizardofodds.com blackjack calculator the edge is about .55% with perfect play.

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If this is correct than Party manipulates the game to gain an extra 4% edge?

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Yes.

[Homer]

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Your average player is probably averaging closer to 5 or 10% house edge.


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FYP (I've watched people play in the casino, the amount they vary from basic strategy is ridiculous).

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No way this is true for BJ. Using a "mimic the dealer" strategy results in a HA of 5.48%, and most people aren't quite that stupid. I'm guessing the average HA in BJ is more like 2%.

[MicroBob]

nice post. you know your stuff.


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Most folks do NOT play to anything like 10% disadvantage at blackjack. It's hard to hit -10% without intentionally trying to lose.

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100% correct.
If you were hitting your hard-17 against a dealer-6 or something then you could pass 10%.
Otherwise, it would be very hard to get there.
I suspect that 5% disadvantage is pretty much the max for most of the pretty bad BJ players (and this would include the stuff like standing on a soft-16 and not doubling on an 11 vs. a 6, etc).



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On people knowing better: years ago, I deal with a major published author of a book on blackjack who was convinced that he was reading tells from blackjack dealers who were checking for blackjacks using a hole-card reader system at casinos in Atlantic City.

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How any BJ author can't know how the hole-card readers work is pretty pathetic imo.
Was this guy just a total idiot?
Even most 'ploppies' (BJ slang for 'fish') understand that the dealer only sees an Ace or Ten (depending on which way they slide the card in).


However, the idea of dealer 'tells' is valid at the few places that actually phycially look UNDER the card (they don't use the card-reader thingee).
And if you develop a rapport with the dealer they can even help you out (by passing over your hard-16 vs. T or Ace before you even have a chance to signal).
The very first time I played blackjack I stuck around for a marathon session at $2/hand and was friendly (ummmm....flirting) with some of the dealers. I wasn't even tipping that much either. Good times.


story from that same first-ever BJ session, the casino was running a promotion where you got a token for every BJ with at least a $5 bet out there.
25 tokens and you got a free hotel-room that night.
I didn't want to play $5 on every hand (I was pretty poor at the time)...so I started to count in my head how many aces had come out and decided to increase my bet to $5 when I thought there was an abudance of aces remaining.
Kind of funny that it was the casino's OWN promotion that provoked me into a very rudimentary form of card-counting (I got the free room on back to back nights btw).

[theghost]

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I have a very smart friend, who ironically was a math major, who tried to argue with me that someone can beat craps by picking the right time to bet on a hot roller.

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Your friend is 100% correct

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Care to elaborate?

[jman220]

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I have a very smart friend, who ironically was a math major, who tried to argue with me that someone can beat craps by picking the right time to bet on a hot roller.

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Your friend is 100% correct

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Care to elaborate?

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My guess is its going to be something like "After the dice have been thrown."

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How any BJ author can't know how the hole-card readers work is pretty pathetic imo.
Was this guy just a total idiot?


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No, he wasn't a total idiot. . . that's why he should have known better! When he finally understood how the sideways/vertical thing works with the specially printed cards, he realized he couldn't possibly be right -- and wondered at his own dedication to a false idea.

[roueful]

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This discussion just reminded me of a good read if anyone is interested: Double Down

Autobiographical story from Donald Bartheleme's brothers about losing lots of money at blackjack and slots and getting accused of cheating the casino. This is at least where some of the money comes from.

Here is a blurb from Amazon:

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At first, this dark memoir seems like a simple confessional about how two fiftyish writer-academics lost a quarter-million-dollar inheritance in the late-night world of Mississippi riverboat casinos.... As book-smart gamblers, the Barthelmes indulge in overtipping and betting ludicrous amounts; they are smarter-than-thou, which is their downfall...

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Two plus Two could do with more references to Barthelme. And biting reviews like the second one for this book:

"The cavernous lack of common-sense knowledge they display in their forays to the Gulf Coast casinos would be inconceivable to anyone who's punched a clock or handled an insurance claim."

I think that more or less sums up the sentiment in this thread about the party BJ gamblooors.