QQ UTG vs. good players

[bizaff]

Ugh. I think I fold and feel icky.

If you had any other read on BB and MP2, I'd probably stick around. If you raise, you'll probably only get called by hands that beat you. If you call, MP2's raise (and BB's bet) is hard to read (Ax? 33? JJ? 67s?) and not too many turn cards make you happy (A267 = straight, 345 = trips, 8-J = set, AK = overpair). If your image is tight and the two good players know this (which they probably will), they'll know all of this, and probably put you on a big pair raising UTG.

Blah. I know this seems awfully weak, but you've only invested $7 and there's way too much unknown.

[wdeadwyler]

IMO this is the most interesting hand of the day and it is getting zero replies. Come on guys, chime in, its ok to be wrong, thats how we learn.

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I want a cheap showdown. I think I call here with plans to call down decent bets (bets I would have made anyway).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call this, pot and villain's stack will be ~$80. I would bet the rest is going in on the turn. Not saying a fold is correct, but these almost never end in a cheap showdown.

[the machine]

i like to raise then fold to a push. many seem to like call fold to a bet but your flat calling the flop will allow an agreesive player continuation bet on the turn which many said they would fold. calling down you probably put about the same amount of money in if you were to raise. i think it may be cheaper to raise here and fold then call the whole way or call and open yourself to a continuation bluff

[wdeadwyler]

[ QUOTE ]
i like to raise then fold to a push. many seem to like call fold to a bet but your flat calling the flop will allow an agreesive player continuation bet on the turn which many said they would fold. calling down you probably put about the same amount of money in if you were to raise. i think it may be cheaper to raise here and fold then call the whole way or call and open yourself to a continuation bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

If we raise here and villain checks to us on the turn what are you doing?

[DoomSlice]

This is a tough spot!

The truth is that BB can have a pretty wide range of hands here, since he is closing the action preflop and getting a good price to do so, so you can't automatically put him on a set.

Several hands that might make this bet that you beat are: 65, A5, A4, A3, 66

Several hands that have you beat are: A2,67, 55, 44, 33 45s, 34s

So it's time to narrow that hand range down a bit. The BB will have an excellent chance to checkraise and trap MP2 in if he slowplays the straight, so those two combinations are slightly less probable.

Sets are a possibility, but once again I think most players like to check-raise here with those.

So that leaves the slightly more vulnerable two pair hands that would lead out like that, along with the pair+draw hands.

You've got a decent chance of catching up with two pair (25%) but you're not ahead THAT much of the pair+draw hands or OESD (66). With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit. If one does hit, I have no problem with folding, and if MP2 or SB happen to come along for the ride, I also have no problem folding to further aggression.

Edit: Also include in the hand range mid PPs like 88-JJ, all of which make a call here even more attractive.

[bizaff]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a tough spot!

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
The truth is that BB can have a pretty wide range of hands here, since he is closing the action preflop and getting a good price to do so, so you can't automatically put him on a set.

Several hands that might make this bet that you beat are: 65, A5, A4, A3, 66

Several hands that have you beat are: A2,67, 55, 44, 33 45s, 34s

So it's time to narrow that hand range down a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
To me, this is the hard part.

[ QUOTE ]
The BB will have an excellent chance to checkraise and trap MP2 in if he slowplays the straight, so those two combinations are slightly less probable.

Sets are a possibility, but once again I think most players like to check-raise here with those.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 straight cards? I wouldn't want to give a free card to any hand containing a 6 or 2, which is fairly likely given the number of people in the pot - A6, A2, 66, 22.

[ QUOTE ]
So that leaves the slightly more vulnerable two pair hands that would lead out like that, along with the pair+draw hands.

You've got a decent chance of catching up with two pair (25%) but you're not ahead THAT much of the pair+draw hands or OESD (66). With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit. If one does hit, I have no problem with folding, and if MP2 or SB happen to come along for the ride, I also have no problem folding to further aggression.

Edit: Also include in the hand range mid PPs like 88-JJ, all of which make a call here even more attractive.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you include these in his range, how do you know which cards are scary?

All of this thinking makes me a little wary of QQ here facing a pot sized bet. On top of that, there's a good player that has me covered left to act after me. That spells disaster to me.

We're facing two good opponents. When we're ahead, we're a little ahead. When we're behind, we're crushed. When we're ahead, we're not going to make much here. When we're behind, we're losing our stack.

Am I way off base here?

[DeathbySuckout]

[ QUOTE ]
With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this much, much more than "Calling is ok, but I think you have to fold the turn if he bets again." If that's your plan, fold now and save $25, because he's probably going to bet again. Having said that, there is no way I'm folding this flop, so I guess I'm also pushing the turn with no scare card. I'm putting him on an overpair, 99-JJ as suggested earlier.

Wow, this one is nasty, but ill take the plunge. As bb was closing the action, there are a lot of possibilities, depending on the player (a more detailed read would certainly help). One thing I don't really fear here is AA or KK, as I think most "solid aggressive" players would reraise these preflop with this action. I'm not sure how accurate this is with your read, but that is how I would interpret it.

A set may be wanting to protect their hand here. If villain likes closing the action with various semi-garbage hands because he thinks he has implied odds on you due to your image and due to all the people already in, hands like A2s, 5/4s, 6/5s etc become possible, albeit very unlikely (I hope, or he isn't as solid as you may think [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). Just about any pocket pair can be betting like this as well, and QQ is ahead of that kind of range here, especially since I don't really fear AA or KK given my interpretation of hero's read. Therefor, this is going to be a WA/WB situation the majority of the time (he would have to have something like 66 for it to not be). I really don't like raising here, therefor I make the call. If MP2/SB don't wake up with a hand, I have position throughout the hand on BB, and I expect a check on most turns a decent % of the time. I think it gets tricky if SB or MP2 come along for the ride. If either one repops, I go away.

I think I likely call down BB if it does get HU and he continues firing. Let him put his money in with his overpair. I check behind if he checks turn. I value bet river if he checks both streets. No real point to raising him at any point, and I am ahead of his range. I wish I had a better read than what you gave me though, as this may change some of my thoughts.

[DoomSlice]

You're certainly not way off base here, this is probably one of these hands where it doesn't hurt to fold and be wrong... but with BBs moderately small stack size, it doesn't hurt as much to call and be wrong either, especially when there's a non-trivial chance that you're ahead.