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  #11  
Old 06-24-2005, 09:59 PM
Doctavian Doctavian is offline
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Default Good better best decisions!

Good, Better, Best decisions!

Dear Pei,

You raise one of the most important questions in Poker.
Is the potential profit from raising in pre flop situations (lots of old pros still call stud’s fourth street the flop) worth the risk, since you don’t know if the fourth street will hit one or more of your opponents hard? (A good example is when you big pair advantage is killed by having two tight opponents pair their door cards)

The answer is that yes! It is very much in your favor to get your bets in early.

If you didn’t would you decision have been wrong. The answer is no. Starting with suited live Aces and Kings carries so much potential pot equity, that if that had been your decision you still would have positive expectations. And would be a correct one.

But AND THIS IS IMPORTANT: Your potential profits from pushing your big live pairs are so great that you just have to maximize your profits from them when you have the opportunity.

Several years ago three studies were done on American and British Casino poker players. Several hundred randomly selected players in each study were monitored as to their profits and losses each time they visited the casino.(One study was done at the University of Nevada and another at Oxford) What they found was that in the US study only 3% of the participants were making money over a year’s time. I think that the English study showed that in their group only 2% were making money over a years time.

Now the winners seemed to be divided into two groups those who were making a little money and those who were making a lot.

Tight and aggressive is the key to success in our game. We avoid week hand and situation over and over again. But then the moment we have the advantage we hit them hard again and again. That’s the difference between the players who make a little money and those who make a lot.

Should you ever slow play your big starting hands? Yes, if you feel that raising will kill all of your action.

One of the weaknesses of my game is that I am sooo tight and aggressive, that about 80% of the time I raise early, all of the players at the table will drop their hands. So in my case I need to telling myself to lower my raising requirements until I can train the players at the casino to give me more action. The reason I haven‘t more training id because I loose action pre-flop I like the fact that my reputation usually allows me to thin the players on the later rounds.

Our game: a lifetime of little adjustments.

That you for raising this important topic.

Most sincerely,

Doc AZ
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  #12  
Old 06-24-2005, 10:19 PM
Doctavian Doctavian is offline
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Default Grammatical errors boring! Sorry! Doc AZ

Dear Pei,

I apologize for the number of grammatical errors I made in my response to your post.

I made two mistakes. One was in having the history channel on in the background as I responded. And the other was not hitting the review button before I posted.

But as I said: The question you raised exposes a cardinal poker principle, which we have to believe in and follow if we want to become consistent winners at our game.

Thank you again for raising this important topic.

Most sincerely,

Doc AZ
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  #13  
Old 06-25-2005, 01:12 AM
Andy B Andy B is offline
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Default Re: Good better best decisions!

What the hell kind of game is this where the "flop" and the "turn" are the same round?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I agree that you just leave too much money on the table by not raising with strong hands on the early rounds. If several people have limped and I have split Queens I might just limp, and I'll probably just limp with Jacks or lower. With Aces, though, you're just giving up too much value by not raising. Same goes for Kings, especially if you have a quality kicker.

Great to see you back, Doc.
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  #14  
Old 06-25-2005, 09:31 PM
Doctavian Doctavian is offline
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Default Andy, an all time favorite! Doc AZ

Andy,

What a pleasure to find that you are one of the forum moderators.

Of all the participants that use to be here, I always valued your opinion the most. (Your's and Ray's for high limit games)

I look forward to hearing your advice. And to sharing again with an old friend.

Most sincerely,

Doc AZ
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  #15  
Old 06-26-2005, 05:41 AM
SittingBull SittingBull is offline
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Default Hello,Presi! There are two schools of thought...

regarding ur question:
(1) initially CALL . On 4th ,if ur high,attempt a check-raise to narrow the field. If u do not believe u can narrow the field on 4th,u MIGHT want to attempt a check-raise on 5th when the betting becomes more expensive--assuming no one seemed to have improved and u think that u have the BEST hand on 5th. But this strtegy of risking free cards when u have a very vulnerable hand on 3rd/4th is very risky.
******************************************
(2) Bet ur hand . U will lose about 65%-70% of the time. However,those pots that u do drag in about 30% of the time will more than offset ur losses OVER TIME. This strtegy is the Caro school of thought.
Continue pounding on 4th,5th and 6th if u think that u have the BEST hands on those streets. U are betting for VALUE.

I believe the Caro method will generate MORE profit OVER TIME; however,the other method will most likely pull in MORE POTS.
Keep in mind that poker is about maximizing profit--NOT winning pots. Also realize that if U are selective about ur starting 3rd St. hands and a large field is playing RANDOM 3-card hands,U WILL slaughter the field OVER TIME. BUT expect to lose MOST of the time--about 65% of ur hand.

HappyPokering,
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]SittingBull
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  #16  
Old 06-26-2005, 05:48 AM
SittingBull SittingBull is offline
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Default DocAZ! Is this REALLY U???

UNBELIEVABLE! Where in the WORLD have U been hibernating?? Very nice to see u again,Doc! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull
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  #17  
Old 06-26-2005, 01:18 PM
peritonlogon peritonlogon is offline
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Default Re: Hello,Presi! There are two schools of thought...

I still think there's something to be said for not raising 3rd and leading till 4th or 5th in 5 or 6 person pots in low limit games on the basis of it being way more difficult to tell where you're at. After all, isn't the chance you win this pot quite close to the chance you'd win with a live 3 flush on 3rd. Would you raise with that hand on the same basis?

I'd say 4 out of 5 times I raise with that holding, but when someone acts like they've made a hidden set or, pairs their 4th st card on 5th after you've made kings and deuces, you're way more likely to find yourself on the fence, where you have no clear move. This spot is fairly common when you play against a table, and I think it's more costly as well as more difficult to spot when you've raised into a field that has already called. There's nothing more depressing then realizing you've been out played by a call station on 5th-7th rounds who makes this hand (48)9448 and just keeps over calling.



I guess I'm not replying to the last post... but I'm not going to retype.
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  #18  
Old 06-26-2005, 01:40 PM
MRBAA MRBAA is offline
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Default Re: Hello,Presi! There are two schools of thought...

The general idea that you should raise big pairs even when they won't fold and you will end up losing more often than not is worth repeating. The reason is simple: pot equity. When you raise into a field of five other players, you are putting in about 16.5% of the money, but your big pair will win more often than that . But in stud, unlike he, there are more variables: what are the other people's up cards? (do they have an overcard to your big pair), how live are your pair cards and side cards? And how do people play -- this is often overlooked but really important in low limit games. If you will bascially give away your hand by raising with split kings, and players will be correct in calling a completion anyway once they've commited the bring in, you may sometimes want to wait until fifth to bet or raise -- it's very much a feel decision but it is not always wrong to do this.

In general though, as others have said, it's never a bad thing to get another bet in when you are a money favorite.
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  #19  
Old 06-26-2005, 01:55 PM
peritonlogon peritonlogon is offline
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Default Re: Hello,Presi! There are two schools of thought...

This brings up a question that I think about quite often. In 7csfap the phrase "play better against" is used in reference to different hands. One of the reasons that "big pairs play better heads up" is that it is way easier not to make a catastrophic error with the big pair when it's heads up. I'd like to hear more ideas on the various meanings of and reasons for hands "playing better (or worse)."
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