20-40 -- Thinking about what he's thinking I'm thinking...

[J.A.Sucker]

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[Lee Jones]

Hmm. Nobody has said what I thought was obvious:

You said you're young and new to mid-limits. Okay, dump 76s in the BB to a raise. There are probably some players who can profit from it, but it's gonna be close. And you don't need the headaches when you're new to this size game. I'll put it this way: occasionally I'll take a shot at a game that's substantially bigger than I usually play. In those circumstances, I dump 76s for a raise in a heartbeat - even with two opponents.

That said, once you've called, gotten that far in the hand, and still have top pair, a call (or even bet) on the river is absolutely mandatory. I actually wonder if you're quite ready to play 20-40 if you played the hand that way. As somebody said, what did an offsuit deuce change? Either he has a big pair or he doesn't. When that river card comes, I'd be asking myself what's the best way to get exactly one bet from AK, and pay exactly one bet to TT (I think the best answer is probably to bet out).

Regards, Lee

[Rick Nebiolo]

Lee,

It's nice to see you posting again.

I just described the pre flop play to a friend who has been a top 20/40 level pro for many years. He tends to play a few more hands than most top players and he thought the pre flop call or fold decision was close. He said if UTG is tight, not too aggressive and predictable when he flops overcards then he leans towards calling. If UTG is tight, aggressive and tricky he leans towards folding. I was suprised that more than a few said this was an easy call. IMO it is at least close but I would tend to fold.

I like the simplified way you explained your river reasoning.

Regards,

Rick

[andyfox]

Hi Rick,

I'll try to balance the scales: I think it's an easy pre-flop fold. A pro, who sees me as young/aggressive raises UTG and I have 7-6 I'm gone, sooted schmooted. I'm out of position (in fact sandwiched) against a good player with seven high. It's just too easy to end up in the same situation poster in fact ended up in, guessing whether UTG had a pair or not.

[andyfox]

Hi Lee,

When I first read your post, I disagreed with the advice to play 7-6s differently when you play for bigger stakes. But your phrase "you don't need the headaches" got me thinking.

I haven't moved up in stakes in a long time. At least not to stakes that are substantially bigger than I usually play. But if I did, I would want to try to emphasize the positives and deemphasize the negatives (and probably not mess with Mr. Inbetween). And playing seven high out of position against an UTG raising pro has to qualify as a negative. It's not that the stakes are different, it's that that UTG raiser is apt to be different, i.e., a much better player at the higher stakes.

Having gotten myself into this position by the river, I would prefer to bet. Check-fold here has a lot of metagame negatives. My favorite opponents are those who call/bet-call/bet/check-fold from the big blind when two small cards come on the turn and the river.

Regards,
Andy

[Diplomat]

Hi Andy,

I agree with you and Rick in that it might not be worth the headache, but I still think it's a call. When I see a new player that usually plays smaller limits suddenly move up, I almost always think they are going to play tighter than most people (unless there is information to the contrary -- it's the "I'll move up, and if I just play tight, I might win" psychology). If I raised utg and was called by such a player, I'd but them on a bigger hand than 67s. For that reason I would call, because utg's read on you will be incorrect.

Moreover, Gab mentioned that the UTG raiser had considerably reduced his raising standards, making overcards more likely. Unfortunately that brings in hands like 88, but I'm still inclined to play the hand.

That said, the post-flop play needs to be different than what was described...and if you do not play this agressively, it should be dumped pre-flop.

Cheers,

-Diplomat

[The Gift Of Gab]

Thanks for the responses.

The pro and I had been talking before the hand, and after I folded he showed me K [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . I've been raked over the coals for folding, so let me try and explain my thought process.

I thought the preflop call was marginal. When I flopped top pair, I wanted to lose as little as possible to an overpair. I thought the stop and go on the turn was the best way to get a good read on his hand. If he has an overpair he's just going to call; a raise will fold all the hands he's beating, and a 5 or straight will 3 bet or checkraise the river. If he has overcards, he's getting 6.25-1 (plus a bet on the end) on a ~7-1 shot ... when he's drawing live. Also, what's he going to do on the end when I bet again, which I sure as hell will if I'm bluffing? I go to the river with AK unimproved as often as the next guy, but when I've raised at every opportunity and someone still bets into me on the turn on a paired, connected board and the odds aren't really there, I'm usually done. I don't think this is the best time to pick off a bluff with overcards, and I think he has to put me on at least a pair here.

On the river, I'd usually check, and I'd call very nearly every time no matter what fell. I think a lot of players will grumble and fold a big ace here, but this being California, a lot of them will bluff. Since this guy was thinking about what I had, I figured a bet on the end had to be for value. Surely he expects me to call after betting into him twice, and with no overcard falling there's nothing out there for him to represent. And if I was bluffing and had given up, his hand might well be good unimproved. For me to be ahead, I thought he would have had to make a marginal call on the turn and dubious bluff on the river, so I could safely fold.

When he showed me his hand I was pretty surprised and asked him what he thought I had. "I didn't think you had anything. You're young, you want to win every hand right now." *Sigh*

Since I obviously managed to think myself out of a pretty big pot, how flawed was my thought process? Comments and criticism appreciated.

[andyfox]

Beware the friendly pro who has been talking to you before the hand. He's likely to end up betting the river with King high.

This is what I meant when I said you're going to end up in a guessing game out of position with seven high. This is especially true when a good player has temporarily lowered his raising standards.

You figured the flop missed the pro; he also figured it missed you. As to what he was going to do on the river, he had some outs: you could check and he could bet; you could bet and he could raise; he could hit by catching a king or a ten; or he could "hit" by catching a scare card, and since you two were talking, he may have figured there would be more of those than with a guy who had played at those stakes for many years.

[Ulysses]

When I flopped top pair, I wanted to lose as little as possible to an overpair.
Hmmm... I want to take down the pot as soon as possible with my tiny top pair. I still think 3-betting the flop is the way to go if you are going to play this hand.

If he has an overpair he's just going to call; a raise will fold all the hands he's beating
I disagree. I think most opponents will raise here w/ an overpair for many reasons. First off, they are likely to have the best hand. Second, they'll get paid off by a smaller pair. Third, a lot of straight draws will pay them off. Fourth, they don't want something like AK to catch one of six outs to beat them.

Also, what's he going to do on the end when I bet again, which I sure as hell will if I'm bluffing?
He's going to raise. That's why I though check-calling was the way to go on the river.

when I've raised at every opportunity and someone still bets into me on the turn on a paired, connected board and the odds aren't really there, I'm usually done.
I suspect this guy is usually done as well. But this time he felt confident he was playing someone he could push off a better hand.

Surely he expects me to call after betting into him twice
As soon as you check the river, he probably figures he has a decent chance of having the best hand, but he's also sure you'll lay down now if you were just pushing something like Ace-high w/ a straight draw. If he had actually put you on a pair of sevens, I doubt he would have bet. I think this was an "I'm likely to be ahead, but just in case he has an Ace, I'll bet" bet. Had you bet out, his raise would have been a pure "I think I can get this guy to fold a better hand" move.

[mikelow]

Hope you enjoyed that nice fruitplate.

Yes your decisions were marginal. But once having reached the RIVER, you have to call. But now you'll never be bluffed again. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]