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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:40 AM
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Default Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

Villain looks like a ABC player, 20/10/2.4 ... Did nothing fancy, always show good hands...

Once again, in my short NL carreer, I can't win with AA and it's definately my most costy hand so far..

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($16.65)
BB ($24.45)
UTG ($5.75)
MP1 ($44.15)
MP2 ($18.02)
CO ($28.45)
Hero ($30.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10. MP2 posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP2 calls $13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $28.37


It really smelt like TT. Big reraise on flop planing to fold an all-in. TT looked like the kind of hand he could cold call PF and indeed, he showed me his hand after..

But still, do you like the fold?
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:43 AM
Fallen Hero Fallen Hero is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

you can't fold with those stacks
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:47 AM
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

After posting this, I just realized that 4 more $ was closing the action. I know it looks weak but I was so damn sure he was on a set.. still weak?
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:56 AM
mudbuddha mudbuddha is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

yes, top pair and over pair's still pay you off
2 pair, you still have outs against

if he has a set. cheers.
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:58 AM
bruin bruin is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

wow. theres no way you can fold this only having to call 5 more. if he setted up then god bless him.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:18 AM
RED FACE RED FACE is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's. Make notes on your opponent. The size of your raise defined his hand for you pretty well although he's short so it still may be hard to tell without more info on him. If you think you could've accomplished the same thing by betting less then you should've as the only point of your raise at that time was to get info imo-really you want to bet enough to make him 3bet a monster but not enough so he folds a weaker(AT) hand. If I'm willing to fold this hand on the flop I raise less - just over a min raise.
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:56 AM
tripp0807 tripp0807 is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense. Complete ignorance of the math aspects of poker is a surefire way to lose.

$5 into a $28 pot with 2 cards to come while holding AA? Folding here is absurd regardless of reads in a cash game.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:25 PM
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was sarcastic when I first read it.

You are the definition of pot-stuck here. Let's look at the math.

You're getting about 6:1 on your money for the call. If you're behind, you're a 10:1 dog. If you're ahead, you're a 10:1 favorite.

When you're behind, 10 times you will lose $5, one time you will win $28, for a net loss of $22, or a net loss of $2 per hand.

When you're ahead, 10 times you will win $28, one time you will lose $5, for a net profit of $275 or a net profit of $25 per hand.

Now let's assume that 90 percent of the time, villain does indeed have a set.

Nine hands out of ten, you will lose $2 net. One hand out of ten, you will profit $25 net. It's a net profit of $7, or $.70 per hand. So getting 6:1 on your money is plenty -- even the math dictates a call!

When villain is that short in the stack, you've just got to decide after his flop bet if you're willing to commit if villain pushes. This was a cold-deck hand, but you can't fold it after what you've already put in.

Hey, I had KK with a flop of K64 yesterday, got it all in for $170 against AA and villain sucked an A out on the river to beat me. You'll have to do the same in this case.
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  #9  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:50 PM
RED FACE RED FACE is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

I can't agree on your 10:1 favorite number if ahead. 7.6:1 if villain has JJ and much worse is villain has a str8 draw. I think this is correct.
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  #10  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:27 PM
Isura Isura is offline
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.
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