Post Flop - river call?

[jd2b2006]

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jd2b2006,

I don't think folding is bad here. But try and go through a thought process. What range of hands would you put villain on? Then think about how villain would play this hand based on each of those hands.

Scuba

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Scuba,

As I said before, with the checks on the flop and turn, villain could have any two cards. Here are some likely hands:

1) any ace: might be slowplaying since he is small stacked; will bet the river no matter what

2) any ten: no reason to bet the turn after hitting trips; will bet river since he most likely has best hand

3) pocket pair between 10s-Ks: likley to bet flop or turn; this hand is likely not to be what villain is holding

4) pocket pair less than 10s: no reason to bet until river

5) K-x: will check all the way through and bet river to bluff since you have shown no strength

6) spade flush draw: should bet at least the turn, if not flop; since this did not happen, not a likely holding

I understand you see the overbet and think bluff, but you need to correct here around 60% for the call to be +EV. Basically, you can only beat a bluff, or split the pot if villain has a K. I personally like to overbet in a situation like this where it looks like a bluff when I have a strong hand, to induce a K-x to call. I also understand that since villain has not bet, it appears they do not have a strong hand. I still stand by my line of betting the river if I want this pot, and folding to an overbet since we have no information. If villain got to be a short stack by donking away his chips, it would strongly influence my decision on calling.