NL200 Monster draw on the flop, worth the chase?

KSakuraba · #1 11-09-2005, 07:52 AM

1/2 NL, 9 handed,

All stacks involved ~200

2 limps before hero(not unusual at the table)
Hero raises to 10 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from MP.
One tightytighty calls, all fold to one of the limpers(bad) who calls.

Flop: (pot~38)

K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Bad limper bets 10, hero raises to 45, tightytighty raises to 100, bad limper folds, hero has ~140 left and does...what????

My image is really LAGgish because of the weak-tight table fwiw.

Thanks guys

Saku

#2 11-09-2005, 07:56 AM

Easy push, your hand is a good hand.

djoyce003 · #3 11-09-2005, 07:58 AM

you are almost certainly behind a set....that means your equity here is pretty low....around 30%....and you aren't getting 3-1...i'd probably fold here....there is no way in hell tighty tighty is threebetting over a bet and raise with anything other than KKK, TTT or 222 IMO...he can't have Qd Jd because you have the jack.

#4 11-09-2005, 08:19 AM

34% against top set, so even if villian flips up KK, the push has an EV of about 0

djoyce003 · #5 11-09-2005, 08:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
34% against top set, so even if villian flips up KK, the push has an EV of about 0

[/ QUOTE ]

180 in the pot, hero has to bet basically 140 to win 220 assuming villain is calling the final 40 or putting it on the turn. How is 140/220 anywhere near 3-1? Is my math off? Wouldn't the pot need to be in the neighborhood of 400 here?

#6 11-09-2005, 08:42 AM

Well, let's simplify things and say that his raise is all in

On the flop the pot starts out at about 35. Then some guy donks 10, hero makes it 45, and villian 'pushes', which means he calls 45 and raises another 140.

So after villian calls 45, the pot is 125. Then he raises 140 more , so villian is getting about 2.1 to 1 odds to call. This is just about the odds he has to crack KK - about 35%

Hattifnatt · #7 11-09-2005, 08:54 AM

Push and pray.

With deeper stacks I think you can call fold to a decent raise on the turn if the board pairs and otherwise play pott/implied odds to the river.

djoyce003 · #8 11-09-2005, 08:57 AM

good point...getting my odds and percentages confused again, doh.

KSakuraba · #9 11-09-2005, 10:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
34% against top set, so even if villian flips up KK, the push has an EV of about 0

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly...i figured i'd be against at least top two for 95% of time, but even the 5% of villain doing this with air makes it worth the chase.
Just checking that my calculations were'nt too much out there..

So in the actual hand I pushed and villain flipped over K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](tightytight???) [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] and i failed to improve.
Oh, well..

Thanks for the responses.

Saku

#10 11-09-2005, 07:51 PM

At best, you are a 4-5 dog (assuming you are up against something like KT); more likely you are a 2-3 dog against a set of deuces of tens.

With 185 in the pot, you are being laid 3.4ish to 1 on the call. Taking a card off by calling the 55 would increase the pot 335 on a call of the rest of your 95 to lay you as a 2-7 dog once. At this point, by calling on the flop, a jam would be almost 0 EV.

Jamming may sound like the fishy play here, but if you are indeed up against a set, you are being priced here. The tight player will most likely not lay down his hand here; you'll get your money if you're playing mathematically correct most of the time anyway--why not be aggressive and do it now?